India is the 7th largest global country with 3.3 million square kilometers and the 2nd as population with 1.2 billion people. In spite in recent years the country lived a strong economic development it is too early to consider the country "developed". Indeed inside India there are thousand different realities. The level of urbanization is still low (30%), while the India Metropolis are among the largest and more dynamics in the world.
National GDP in the period 1998-2008 grew by 7% in average and in spite negative impact of 2008 global financial crisis, India continued to growth. In 2011 the Total GDP was $ 1.843 trillion, 7.8% up on previous year. However the pro capite income remains very low, at $3.700 (at purchasing power parity). However persistent high inflation rate (6.8% in 2011, 12.0 in 2010), high bureaucracy and petrol price increase have increased the level of Government's fuel subsidy expenditures increasing National Deficit (5% in 2011).
Widespread poverty, inadequate infrastructure, limited employment opportunities are the key issue to face in the country want to really become a Global Leading player.
Car industry overview
India automotive industry is the 2nd globally as two wheels, with around 80% of vehicles on the roads that are two wheelers. This will not change in the next decade, considering the infrastructure development is very slow as the pro capita income growth.
As car manufacturer India is growing with an exceptional speed. In 2003 national production for the first time exceeded the 1 million yearly production. In 2006 it exceeded the 2 million, and in 2010 the 3 million. In 2011 with 3.9 million vehicles, India was the 6th largest global car manufacturer. In last four years, India production increased by 68%, second only to China.
Domestic light passenger market at 2.571.000 units was the world's 8th in the 2011.
November 2013 confirmed the negative momentum for Indian car market, a former "emerging" and now clearly "declining" market. Following over one year of decline, India has lost one position in Global car markets ranking, outpaced by UK. See forecast inside.
October 2013 was the ten declining month out of last eleven finally moving local car manufacturers association (SIAM) to reduce the market growth estimates. Although it is becoming a single product seller, Honda improved sales by 36% to Amaze success.
September 2013 Indian car market was again negative, losing 3.5% from last year, hit by vehicles price increased and high interest rates. Year to date sales were down 7.9%. Ford hit the all-time sales record thanks to Ecosport, the new SUV, locally produced.
In August 2013, Indian car market was up 5% from last year, when sales were hit by large Maruti plant shutdown. Aiming to balance loss generated by rupee devaluation, all importers have increased prices anticipating sales reduction in the next months.
Following a negative first half, July 2013 was again down for the Indian car market, as sales were reported 8.2% below year ago. Year to date performance was negative by 9.9%. New Ecosport entered in top ten model pushing Ford up.
Keeping its worst ever pace, Indian car market in June 2013 dropped 5.2% from last year ending an awful first half down 10.1%. Launching the locally produced SUV Ecosport, Ford finally attacked this market, almost doubling share.
Hit by increased duties, high interest rates, rising fuel cost and low economic increase, consumer's demand in India is falling and May car market was 9.2% down from last year. Following 6 months of growth, Maruti had significantly lost share.
In April, Indian car market negative momentum went on with a decline of 8.6% and a cumulate loss of 11.3%. In addition, the market was hit by an increase of 10% of the already huge excise duty on SUV models.
Surprising many observers, Indian car market recently started to fall down, month after month, with March 2013, traditionally strong for ending of Indian fiscal year, posting a double digit drop. The year will remain challenging, in spite of new models arrival.
Posting the 4th year-on-year decline in a row, India car market in March dropped 13.5% from last year, with the first quarter sales down 12.0%. Toyota and Honda improved sales and share, while Tata confirmed the deep crisis.
Hit by increasing fuel price and high interest rate, the Indian car market dropped 17.3% in February 2013 with year-to date performance down 11.2% from last year. Maruti confirmed its momentum and Renault grew with Duster in 11th place.
The start of new calendar year was not positive in January, with market slipping 4.7% from last year. A really good start was posted by the market dominator, the Maruti Suzuki able to gain 44% of market share. Tata dropped in 4th with a share 4 points down from last year.
In spite of slight decline posted in December, when the market was down 2.8% from last year, the Indian car market ended the 2012 with a robust 9.6% increase, fixing the new all-time record. Last generation of Maruti Alto, launched in October achieved the 13.4% of share.
Following the booming sales reported in October, the Indian car market was slightly positive in November, with year-to-date sales up 10.8% from last year. Hyundai posted the best share of the year, while Honda and Toyota the worst.