Europe: Russian invasion in Ukraine will hit 2014 Car Market. See 2014 Outlook and January performance by country.

Thanks to its database and the network of local correspondents, focus2move.com is now able to release sales data for the entire Europe, from Portugal to Ukraine. The countries included are not only those inside the European Community – as released by ACEA association – but also others, such as Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia, Moldova, Bulgaria, Belarus, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. Moreover, data includes cars and light commercial vehicles in order to give a better view of the True European light passenger markets and allow a pear with pear comparison with the rest of the World.

In January 2014, European light passenger vehicle market figures were 1.284k up 2.7% from year ago. Among Big Countries, Russia, France and Turkey have lost from last year while UK, Germany, Italy and Spain posted growth that would be confirmed across the year.

Total vehicles sold in Europe declined at 17.7 million in 2013 from 19.06 in 2011 and base projections for 2014 are for a little decline at 17.6 million.

Last quarter 2013 data (corroborated by a strong December increase over year ago) and now the January positive start have finally created a renewed optimistic general opinion on European car market 2014 performance. Indeed Top Executives official announcement released tomorrow at the opening of Geneva Motorshow will remain conservative and they will project the market down again.

Indeed European zone GDP will move ahead this year following years of low growth and financial speculation over PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) gave up month ago now focusing on other opportunities, following the strong defense of Euro zone applied by BCE policy and progressive effect of harsh cut of expenses.

Until a week ago, two elements were limiting the European market recovery: the huge level of unemployment in the South of the Region and the high level of circulating park per people in Western Europe where a new kind of mobility systems are questioning the rule of car ownership for people commuting.

Today, travelling to the most relevant Motorshow event in Europe, the Ukraine crisis with Russian military invasion of Crimea, could totally change the political, economic, monetary and social scenario with direct negative impact of car markets.

Russian declaration to invade a country to “protect Russian people inside” is similar to what Germany said in 1938, invading Sudeten province inside current Czech Republic. Times are different and a global war is unlikely, but economic effects will hit the continent, for sure. Actually it is too early to project effect of this new and unpredicted scenario, but it will move projection down.

In the table below, all European countries including sales for car passengers and light commercial vehicles (in red the country with year-on-year loss in January 2014):

Brand

Sales Jan

YTD Jan

I Half ’13 % change.

Q3 ’13 % chng

Q4 13 % chng

Dec ’13 % chng

Jan % chng

Austria

         26.358

         26.358

-8,5%

-3,3%

3,0%

13,4%

-12,0%

Belarus

           2.409

           2.409

54,6%

54,6%

54,6%

54,6%

2,4%

Belgium

         54.627

         54.627

1,6%

-2,7%

-3,5%

12,1%

-2,7%

Bosnia

               535

               535

-22,9%

-29,9%

-21,6%

-21,1%

-0,4%

Bulgaria

           1.720

           1.720

-1,7%

17,6%

7,1%

5,5%

20,4%

Croatia

           2.080

           2.080

-23,8%

6,1%

17,7%

29,4%

14,7%

Cyprus

               889

               889

-42,7%

-25,7%

-24,8%

-10,1%

-3,1%

Czech Rep

         14.562

         14.562

-14,2%

7,7%

3,8%

15,1%

14,1%

Denmark

         18.084

         18.084

8,0%

-1,7%

9,9%

28,6%

9,5%

Estonia

           1.915

           1.915

15,3%

8,7%

-3,6%

-31,8%

-2,8%

Finland

         13.541

         13.541

-15,9%

10,5%

0,4%

-9,0%

20,8%

France

     152.645

     152.645

-10,8%

-1,1%

3,6%

9,8%

-1,1%

Germany

     219.853

     219.853

-6,8%

1,0%

5,7%

9,5%

6,4%

Greece

           6.658

           6.658

-6,4%

4,9%

10,3%

8,4%

14,7%

Hungary

           5.089

           5.089

-4,1%

17,3%

15,0%

7,4%

18,4%

Iceland

               673

               673

1,7%

-11,8%

-37,0%

-33,4%

35,4%

Ireland

         25.751

         25.751

-19,0%

75,0%

2,0%

-26,8%

33,4%

Italy

     126.568

     126.568

-10,5%

-3,1%

-2,1%

2,4%

3,0%

Latvia

          1.329

           1.329

4,3%

-3,8%

11,8%

9,5%

27,1%

Lithuania

           1.306

           1.306

-1,5%

-2,2%

10,4%

8,2%

13,2%

Luxembourg

           3.720

           3.720

-8,2%

-6,9%

-5,2%

-15,4%

3,0%

Macedonia

               437

               437

-16,4%

2,7%

-21,1%

-4,2%

0,4%

Moldova

               404

               404

-50,9%

-51,8%

-54,5%

-54,5%

6,1%

Netherlands

         51.682

         51.682

-34,3%

-6,3%

49,4%

110,8%

-5,5%

Norway

         13.329

         13.329

1,4%

-1,3%

6,1%

21,9%

-7,4%

Poland

         35.223

         35.223

-11,7%

0,8%

2,2%

9,3%

18,0%

Portugal

         10.578

         10.578

4,9%

16,1%

31,0%

41,2%

31,6%

Romania

           5.850

           5.850

-24,7%

-0,4%

0,2%

21,9%

13,3%

Russia

     152.662

     152.662

-5,3%

-7,8%

-2,2%

4,4%

-5,8%

Serbia

           1.154

          1.154

-11,0%

-5,0%

4,1%

15,8%

0,8%

Slovakia

           5.819

           5.819

-12,1%

-23,0%

20,7%

29,0%

23,2%

Slovenia

           4.920

           4.920

-0,5%

12,4%

11,6%

2,3%

0,0%

Spain

        60.379

         60.379

-4,8%

8,8%

23,7%

21,0%

11,2%

Sweden

         21.485

         21.485

-9,5%

4,6%

0,6%

0,2%

17,4%

Switzerland

         22.276

         22.276

-11,4%

2,0%

-1,5%

3,3%

-4,3%

Turkey

         32.670

         32.670

12,1%

7,6%

8,1%

12,4%

-8,0%

UK

     172.684

     172.684

10,1%

11,6%

12,4%

24,8%

8,1%

Ukraine

         12.694

         12.694

-9,6%

0,4%

-27,3%

-23,3%

-31,7%

Monaco

               226

               226

7,1%

7,1%

7,1%

7,1%

6,1%

Liechtenstein

               124

               124

-8,1%

-6,7%

-9,2%

-13,4%

-12,5%

Total

   1.284.909

   1.284.909

-5,7%

1,1%

4,9%

11,5%

2,7%

(65)

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