German car market dropped 11% in September 2012. BMW up, Audi down

As anticipated by our forecast, the car market in Germany started a negative trend with the September double digit year-on-year drop resulting the highest in three years and the third consecutive. This data combined with many other central and north European countries show that the European-wide car crisis is no longer confined to the south.

While German market is now declining, many German brands are on track to deliver their all-time volume record thanks to strong sales in both the United States and Asia. However, that is not the case of Opel and others European car companies, which focus almost exclusively on markets closer to home. The result so far this year has been a dramatic industry plunge that looks set to result in the worst annual car sales in Europe in 17 years.

Volkswagen Group was the only major European mass-market manufacturer to have thus far avoided significant problems from the downturn on the Continent. The company has benefited from both a German market that has been strong until now and its significant share in markets abroad such as China and Brazil. “Despite all of the headwinds, we are sticking to our ambitious goals for 2012,” CEO Martin Winterkorn said at the Paris Motor Show.

Looking at September performance by brand,

Volkswagen sold 51.363 units with a share of 20.5%, down 0.7 points of share from previous month. The third quarter share at 21.8% was in line with year-to-date share. In 9 months, sales were 515.000.

BMW surged in 2nd position, outpacing Mercedes and Audi thanks to a great share performance, at 10.4%. September sales were 26.006 and the 9 months volume at 211.792 was only 500 units below Mercedes, competing for the 2nd market position. However, BMW Q3 share at 8.7% was 0.9 points of share lower than Q2. The best-selling model was the 1 series, in 4th position.

Mercedes was 3rd in the month with 22.748 sales and a share of 9.1%, down 0.2 points from previous month. Q3 share at 9.2% was 0.2 points down from Q2 while 0.2 up from year-to-date. Total cumulated sales were 212.376 and the best-selling model was the B Series, 3rd for the first time ever.

Audi sold only 19.282 units with a share dropped at 7.7, down 2.3 points of share from previous month. Q3 share at 9.1% was up 0.2 points from Q2 and 1.5 points from Q1. The best-selling model was the A4, 7th in the month ranking.

Opel confirmed its 5th place with 16.996 sales and a share of 6.8%. Q3 share at 6.8% was down 0.7 points from Q2. The best-selling model was the Corsa, 6th, while the Astra was 9th.

Ford slightly recovered share after August drop at 5.7%. With 15.992 sales, the share rose at 6.4%. However, Q3 share at 6.4% was down 0.2 points from Q2 and 0.7 from Q1.

Looking behind, winners of the months were Skoda, 6th with 15.236 sales and a share of 6.1%, Toyota, 9th with 8.606 sales and a share of 3.4% and Seat 11th with 5.806 and a share of 2.3%.

Among losers there were Fiat, 12th with 5.343 sales and 2.1% of share, Citroen and Smart.

In the table below the Top 30 Brands ranked for the year to date position:

Rank

Brand

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

2011

Q1

Q2

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

1

Volkswagen

51.363

157.791

514.986

21,6%

22,3%

21,4%

20,5%

21,8%

21,8%

2

Mercedes

22.748

66.316

212.376

9,0%

8,5%

9,4%

9,1%

9,2%

9,0%

3

BMW

26.006

62.981

211.792

9,4%

8,6%

9,6%

10,4%

8,7%

9,0%

4

Audi

19.282

66.152

201.223

7,9%

7,6%

8,9%

7,7%

9,1%

8,5%

5

Opel

16.996

49.358

167.965

8,0%

7,0%

7,5%

6,8%

6,8%

7,1%

6

Ford

15.992

46.403

158.663

7,3%

7,1%

6,6%

6,4%

6,4%

6,7%

7

Renault/Dacia

11.105

36.268

113.785

5,1%

5,0%

4,5%

4,4%

5,0%

4,8%

8

Skoda

15.236

35.503

113.696

4,5%

4,6%

4,9%

6,1%

4,9%

4,8%

9

Hyundai

8.303

23.108

75.938

2,7%

3,4%

3,1%

3,3%

3,2%

3,2%

10

Toyota

8.606

20.083

64.299

2,6%

3,0%

2,5%

3,4%

2,8%

2,7%

11

Fiat

5.343

16.150

57.038

2,5%

2,3%

2,7%

2,1%

2,2%

2,4%

12

Peugeot

5.164

16.415

56.858

2,6%

2,4%

2,6%

2,1%

2,3%

2,4%

13

Nissan

5.127

14.696

49.705

2,2%

2,5%

1,8%

2,1%

2,0%

2,1%

14

Seat

5.806

17.875

49.594

1,9%

1,9%

1,9%

2,3%

2,5%

2,1%

15

Citroen

4.842

13.898

49.000

2,1%

2,2%

2,1%

1,9%

1,9%

2,1%

16

Kia

4.323

14.107

41.818

1,3%

1,7%

1,7%

1,7%

1,9%

1,8%

17

Mazda

3.616

9.489

32.194

1,3%

1,7%

1,1%

1,4%

1,3%

1,4%

18

Volvo

3.162

7.317

25.188

1,1%

1,1%

1,1%

1,3%

1,0%

1,1%

19

Suzuki

2.525

7.258

24.209

1,1%

1,1%

1,0%

1,0%

1,0%

1,0%

20

Chevrolet

2.442

6.834

22.450

0,9%

0,9%

1,0%

1,0%

0,9%

1,0%

21

Smart

1.833

6.197

22.069

0,9%

0,9%

1,0%

0,7%

0,9%

0,9%

22

Honda

2.996

8.090

20.598

0,9%

0,7%

0,8%

1,2%

1,1%

0,9%

23

Mitsubishi

1.983

5.500

18.514

0,9%

0,9%

0,7%

0,8%

0,8%

0,8%

24

Porsche

1.590

4.718

16.225

0,6%

0,7%

0,7%

0,6%

0,7%

0,7%

25

Land Rover

743

2.574

8.283

0,2%

0,4%

0,3%

0,3%

0,4%

0,4%

26

Subaru

797

2.498

6.992

0,2%

0,3%

0,2%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

27

Alfa Romeo

452

1.598

6.032

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

0,2%

0,2%

0,3%

28

Chrysler

582

1.820

5.398

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

0,3%

0,2%

29

Lancia

180

609

2.525

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

30

Jaguar

369

772

2.428

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

0,1%

Looking at the single model performance, the ranking was almost stable with Golf “family” on the top with 21.763 sales and 8.7% of share, the best share since January.

The Volkswagen Passat confirmed the 2nd position with 6.229 sales and 2.5% of share, followed by the Mercedes B Class, for the first time ever on the podium, with 5.801 sales and 2.3%. The BMW 1 Series posted an astonishing performance jumping in 4th place (from 14th) with 5.704 units, followed by the Mercedes C-Class, 5th with 5.487 and the Opel Corsa, 6th with 4.987.

A great performance was posted by the Skoda Octavia 9th and by the Mini, 14th.

In the table below the Top 40 best-selling models, ordered by year to date position:

Rank

Model

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

Q1

Q2

Aug

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

1

VW Golf/Plus/Jetta

21.763

59.021

187.055

8,1%

7,6%

8,0%

8,7%

8,1%

7,9%

2

Volkswagen Passat

6.229

20.096

66.788

2,9%

2,8%

2,6%

2,5%

2,8%

2,8%

3

Volkswagen Polo

3.688

15.925

59.041

3,1%

2,2%

2,3%

1,5%

2,2%

2,5%

4

Mercedes C Class

5.487

16.724

54.290

2,2%

2,4%

2,5%

2,2%

2,3%

2,3%

5

Opel Astra

4.910

14.748

52.860

2,3%

2,4%

2,0%

2,0%

2,0%

2,2%

6

Mercedes B Class

5.801

16.988

46.620

1,6%

2,0%

2,4%

2,3%

2,3%

2,0%

7

BMW 3 series

4.430

11.858

45.708

1,6%

2,5%

1,6%

1,8%

1,6%

1,9%

8

Audi A6, A7

3.825

13.155

43.054

1,9%

1,8%

1,9%

1,5%

1,8%

1,8%

9

Opel Corsa

4.987

13.528

42.870

1,7%

1,9%

2,1%

2,0%

1,9%

1,8%

10

BMW 1 series

5.704

12.416

42.523

1,7%

1,9%

1,5%

2,3%

1,7%

1,8%

11

Volkswagen Tiguan

4.061

12.803

41.789

1,9%

1,7%

1,5%

1,6%

1,8%

1,8%

12

Audi A4

4.960

17.290

41.523

1,2%

1,8%

2,6%

2,0%

2,4%

1,8%

13

Volkswagen Touran

4.113

12.317

39.597

1,7%

1,6%

1,6%

1,6%

1,7%

1,7%

14

Ford Focus

3.358

10.362

37.100

1,7%

1,5%

1,2%

1,3%

1,4%

1,6%

15

Skoda Octavia

4.649

11.056

36.824

1,5%

1,6%

1,5%

1,9%

1,5%

1,6%

16

Ford Fiesta

3.282

9.973

36.519

1,6%

1,7%

1,2%

1,3%

1,4%

1,5%

17

BMW 5 series

4.568

12.180

36.003

1,5%

1,4%

1,6%

1,8%

1,7%

1,5%

18

Mercedes E Class

2.950

9.658

35.258

1,5%

1,6%

1,4%

1,2%

1,3%

1,5%

19

Audi A3

3.361

10.395

34.180

1,3%

1,6%

1,6%

1,3%

1,4%

1,4%

20

Skoda Fabia

3.530

8.340

31.929

1,4%

1,4%

1,3%

1,4%

1,2%

1,4%

21

Volkswagen Up!

3.302

10.680

30.945

1,0%

1,4%

1,5%

1,3%

1,5%

1,3%

22

Mini

4.016

8.660

28.403

1,1%

1,3%

0,9%

1,6%

1,2%

1,2%

23

VW Transporter

2.109

7.203

26.106

1,2%

1,1%

1,0%

0,8%

1,0%

1,1%

24

Opel Zafira

2.200

6.635

24.628

1,1%

1,1%

0,8%

0,9%

0,9%

1,0%

25

Nissan Qashqai

2.384

6.753

22.797

1,2%

0,8%

0,9%

1,0%

0,9%

1,0%

26

Smart Fortwo

1.833

6.197

22.069

0,9%

1,0%

0,9%

0,7%

0,9%

0,9%

27

Hyundai i30

1.941

5.675

21.957

1,2%

0,8%

0,7%

0,8%

0,8%

0,9%

28

Seat Ibiza

2.276

7.114

21.784

1,0%

0,8%

1,1%

0,9%

1,0%

0,9%

29

Audi A1

2.100

7.432

21.634

0,9%

0,9%

1,1%

0,8%

1,0%

0,9%

30

Ford C-Max

1.434

6.339

20.621

0,9%

0,8%

1,1%

0,6%

0,9%

0,9%

31

Opel Meriva

1.607

5.779

19.846

0,8%

0,9%

0,9%

0,6%

0,8%

0,8%

32

BMW X3

2.104

5.570

19.783

0,8%

0,9%

0,6%

0,8%

0,8%

0,8%

33

BMW X1

2.654

5.871

19.548

0,9%

0,8%

0,9%

1,1%

0,8%

0,8%

34

Mercedes A Class

2.637

4.073

19.183

0,9%

0,9%

0,5%

1,1%

0,6%

0,8%

35

Audi Q3

1.427

6.627

18.764

0,7%

0,8%

1,2%

0,6%

0,9%

0,8%

36

Toyota Yaris

2.659

6.013

18.524

0,8%

0,7%

0,7%

1,1%

0,8%

0,8%

37

Renault Megane

2.290

5.893

17.833

0,8%

0,7%

0,7%

0,9%

0,8%

0,8%

38

Audi A5

1.430

4.874

17.539

0,7%

0,8%

0,7%

0,6%

0,7%

0,7%

39

Opel Insignia

1.895

5.343

17.241

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

0,8%

0,7%

0,7%

40

Skoda Yeti

2.393

5.508

17.118

0,7%

0,8%

0,8%

1,0%

0,8%

0,7%

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