India car market: the party is over! March sales dropped 13%.

Following the record fall reported in the previous month, Indian car market confirmed in March the negative outlook with total sales of 247.777 units, down 13.5% from last year, posting the 4th year-on-year drop in a row. First quarter 2013 ended with 699.861 sales, down 12.0%, losing around 100.000 units from year ago. The reasons behind this decline had been deeply explained in our previous report from India and they were enhanced by reduced showroom traffic in March, a month traditionally very strong in sales, closing the Indian fiscal year.

In this quite negative environment, Volvo, a marginal player so far in this market, launched its new V40 Cross Country, announcing aggressive strategies, to boost annual sales to 20.000 units by 2017. Indeed, so far Volvo success in India was arguable, considering the activities started in 2007 with resonant announcements and targets, while in 2012 sales landed at only 821 units, around one tenth of main luxury players. Volvo is excited about the opportunities in the luxury car market in India, which currently is just one per cent of the overall industry figure but has the potential to grow fantastically. We at focus2move have a different view.

Just to surprise, considering the low mood spread in the Indian market field, the famous consulting firm JD Power announced in March that Indian car sales may boom at 9.3 million in 2020, more than 3 times the 2012 volume. Someone should advice these Experts that cars need roads to be driven and people need money to purchase. Indeed, focus2move.com 2020 forecast for India is at 5 million units. We clearly have a different view. Just wait for few years to understand who is right!

Looking at the top brands performance in the last month:

Maruti followed the 45% share peaked in February with a further strong month posting 107.890 sales with a share of 43.5%. Year-to-date sales were 309.051, with a remarkable share of 44.2%, up 2.7 points from Q4 2012.

Hyundai passed a tough month selling 33.858 units with a share dropped at 13.7%, down 1.9 points from the previous month and one of the worst in recent years. Year-to-date sales were 102.162 with a share of 14.6%, down 0.4 points from Q4 2012.

Mahindra kept a solid third position with 25.847 sales and a share of 10.4%, down 0.4 points of share from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 75.782 with a share of 10.8%, down 0.7 points from Q4 2012.

Toyota was last month’s main winner with 19.452 sales and a share of 7.9%, up 2.0 points from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 45.537 with a share of 6.5%, up 1.1 points from Q4 2012. The top selling model, the Innova, advanced in 8th position.

Tata had not recovered ending a very weak quarter with 12.347 sales and a share of 5.0%, up 0.1 points of share from the previous month. First Quarter 2013 sales were 38.169, with a share dropped at 5.5% from 8.2% in Q4 2012 and 11.6% in the first half 2012.

Honda was another winner, advancing in 6th place with 10.044 sales and a share climbed at 4.1%, up 1.1 points from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 22.005 with a share of 3.1%, up 0.6 points from Q4 2012. The best model was the Liva surged in 22nd place.

Chevrolet was 7th with 9.006 sales and a share of 3.36, up 0.3 points from the previous month. YTD sales were 23.700 with a share of 3.4%, up 0.2 points from the previous quarter.

Renault is the raising brand in India and in March confirmed the momentum ranking in 8th, up 3 spots from full year 2011, with 8.232 sales and 3.3% of share, up 0.2 points from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 19.869 with a share of 2.8%, down 0.2 points from Q4 2012. Duster posted a new record volume ranking 10th.

Volkswagen was 9th with 6.506 sales and a share of 2.6%, down 0.1 points of share from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 19.236 with a share of 2.7%, up 0.3 points from Q4 2012. The top model was the Vento ranked 22nd.

Ford was 10th with 5.271 sales and a share of 2.1%, flat from the previous month. Year-to-date sales were 15.823 and share at 2.3%, down 0.8 points from last quarter 2012.

In the table below, the Top 20 Brands, ranked for the year-to-date position:

Rank Ytd

Rank 2012

Brand

Mar

Q1 2013

I Half 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Feb

Mar

Q1 2013

1

1

Maruti

107.890

309.051

40,8%

35,7%

41,5%

44,9%

43,5%

44,2%

2

2

Hyundai

33.858

102.162

14,5%

14,7%

15,0%

15,6%

13,7%

14,6%

3

4

Mahindra

25.847

75.782

8,5%

11,2%

11,5%

10,7%

10,4%

10,8%

4

5

Toyota

19.452

45.537

6,8%

6,9%

5,4%

5,9%

7,9%

6,5%

5

3

Tata

12.347

38.169

11,6%

11,9%

8,2%

4,9%

5,0%

5,5%

6

6

Chevrolet

9.006

23.700

3,4%

3,8%

3,2%

3,3%

3,6%

3,4%

7

8

Honda

10.044

22.005

2,9%

2,6%

2,5%

3,0%

4,1%

3,1%

8

11

Renault

8.232

19.869

0,3%

1,9%

3,0%

3,1%

3,3%

2,8%

9

9

Volkswagen

6.506

19.236

2,5%

2,5%

2,4%

2,7%

2,6%

2,7%

10

7

Ford

5.271

15.823

3,2%

3,7%

3,1%

2,1%

2,1%

2,3%

11

10

Nissan

2.125

8.128

1,9%

1,9%

1,1%

0,9%

0,9%

1,2%

12

12

Skoda

2.079

6.083

1,6%

1,0%

0,9%

0,9%

0,8%

0,9%

13

14

BMW

889

2.394

0,3%

0,4%

0,5%

0,3%

0,4%

0,3%

14

15

Audi

824

2.355

0,3%

0,4%

0,4%

0,4%

0,3%

0,3%

15

16

Mercedes

624

2.009

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

16

17

Mitsubishi

725

1.970

0,1%

0,2%

0,2%

0,4%

0,3%

0,3%

17

18

JLR

430

1.210

0,1%

0,1%

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

18

13

Fiat

462

1.011

0,6%

0,3%

0,2%

0,1%

0,2%

0,1%

19

19

Volvo

122

346

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

0,1%

0,0%

0,0%

20

20

Mini

44

122

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

In the table below, the Top 50 models ranked for the last month position:

Rank Mar

Rank Feb

Rank 2012

Model

Mar

Q1 2013

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Feb

Mar

Q1 2013

1

1

1

Maruti Alto

27.356

81.071

8,3%

11,8%

11,5%

11,0%

11,6%

2

3

3

Maruti DZire

20.078

55.454

4,5%

6,3%

8,4%

8,1%

7,9%

3

2

2

Maruti Swift

19.654

58.116

3,6%

7,7%

9,0%

7,9%

8,3%

4

4

4

Maruti Wagon R

14.681

43.248

6,1%

5,2%

6,2%

5,9%

6,2%

5

5

5

Mahindra Bolero

11.675

32.387

4,7%

4,5%

4,6%

4,7%

4,6%

6

7

6

Hyundai i10

8.686

25.420

3,5%

4,0%

3,8%

3,5%

3,6%

7

6

8

Hyundai Eon

8.604

25.582

2,8%

3,4%

4,0%

3,5%

3,7%

8

9

12

Toyota Innova

8.422

20.981

3,2%

2,3%

3,0%

3,4%

3,0%

9

8

9

Hyundai i20

6.988

23.248

4,0%

3,4%

3,5%

2,8%

3,3%

10

11

 

Renault Duster

6.813

15.957

1,5%

1,9%

2,6%

2,7%

2,3%

11

10

16

Maruti Ertiga

6.200

18.025

3,5%

2,8%

2,7%

2,5%

2,6%

12

12

11

Maruti Omni

5.575

15.993

3,1%

2,2%

2,3%

2,3%

2,3%

13

15

7

Tata Indica/Vista

5.304

16.606

4,1%

3,1%

1,8%

2,1%

2,4%

14

14

14

Maruti Ritz

4.890

12.977

2,6%

2,4%

1,9%

2,0%

1,9%

15

24

23

Toyota Etios

4.742

10.439

1,7%

1,0%

1,3%

1,9%

1,5%

16

16

19

Mahindra Scorpio

4.658

13.026

2,1%

1,9%

1,8%

1,9%

1,9%

17

13

17

Hyundai Verna

4.589

14.526

2,5%

1,9%

2,2%

1,9%

2,1%

18

18

13

Ford Figo

4.381

13.425

2,9%

2,3%

1,7%

1,8%

1,9%

19

17

20

Hyundai Santro

4.080

10.949

1,6%

1,7%

1,8%

1,6%

1,6%

20

22

21

Maruti Eeco

3.931

10.020

2,2%

1,6%

1,4%

1,6%

1,4%

21

23

27

Honda Brio

3.917

9.169

1,0%

1,2%

1,3%

1,6%

1,3%

22

31

28

Toyota Liva

3.895

8.020

1,0%

1,0%

0,8%

1,6%

1,1%

23

21

26

Honda City

3.432

9.601

1,2%

1,1%

1,5%

1,4%

1,4%

24

36

54

Chevrolet Sail

3.272

6.670

0,0%

0,4%

0,7%

1,3%

1,0%

25

20

22

Mahindra XUV500

3.187

10.380

2,1%

1,8%

1,6%

1,3%

1,5%

26

29

32

Volkswagen Vento

3.055

6.988

0,9%

0,9%

0,9%

1,2%

1,0%

27

26

18

Chevrolet Beat

3.006

8.334

2,2%

1,4%

1,1%

1,2%

1,2%

28

19

24

Volkswagen Polo

3.001

11.207

1,5%

1,4%

1,7%

1,2%

1,6%

29

 

 

Honda Brio Amaze

2.552

2.552

 

 

0,0%

1,0%

0,4%

30

33

25

Tata Sumo

2.159

5.505

1,8%

1,3%

0,7%

0,9%

0,8%

31

32

35

Maruti M800

2.136

5.451

0,7%

0,6%

0,8%

0,9%

0,8%

32

30

31

Mahindra Xylo

2.117

6.088

1,1%

0,9%

0,9%

0,9%

0,9%

33

27

15

Tata Indigo/Manza

2.092

6.742

2,4%

2,0%

1,0%

0,8%

1,0%

34

28

44

Mahindra Quanto

1.857

6.910

0,3%

0,9%

1,0%

0,7%

1,0%

35

25

34

Chevrolet Tavera

1.853

5.865

1,0%

0,8%

1,1%

0,7%

0,8%

36

34

38

Toyota Fortuner

1.772

4.792

0,7%

0,6%

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

37

37

33

Skoda Rapid

1.587

4.416

0,7%

0,6%

0,6%

0,6%

0,6%

38

35

10

Tata Nano

1.507

4.516

3,0%

1,9%

0,7%

0,6%

0,6%

39

51

41

Maruti Estilo

1.324

2.802

0,5%

0,5%

0,2%

0,5%

0,4%

40

38

29

Nissan Sunny

1.304

4.951

1,2%

0,7%

0,5%

0,5%

0,7%

41

40

37

Mahindra Verito

1.211

3.747

0,8%

0,6%

0,5%

0,5%

0,5%

42

39

40

Tata Safari

1.078

4.205

0,5%

0,5%

0,5%

0,4%

0,6%

43

42

55

Renault Scala

1.026

2.458

0,1%

0,3%

0,3%

0,4%

0,4%

44

54

43

Maruti SX4

903

2.130

0,2%

0,3%

0,1%

0,4%

0,3%

45

41

30

Maruti A-Star

874

3.064

3,0%

0,5%

0,5%

0,4%

0,4%

46

44

36

Ford Fiesta

840

2.197

0,7%

0,7%

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

47

47

63

Mahindra Thar

690

1.859

0,0%

0,2%

0,2%

0,3%

0,3%

48

46

42

Chevrolet Spark

606

1.823

0,2%

0,4%

0,2%

0,2%

0,3%

49

49

58

Hyundai Elantra

546

1.504

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

0,2%

50

57

47

Toyota Corolla Altis

544

1.134

0,2%

0,2%

0,1%

0,2%

0,2%

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