Italy: car industry April 2012: leaning much, but standing.

In the previous report on Italy we have already explained the reasons behind the current trend. No good news from April!

Unfortunately the level of unemployment in Italy is fast growing, with youth unemployment index (between 15-24 years) at the all time record of 34%. The 2012 GDP is forecast down in a range of 0.8-1.5 (up to different sources). It should be positive again in the 2013, but only marginally (it is projected between 0,8 and-1,0 percent).

Something is changing, day after day, in the Italians minds and lifes: they have understood their style of life was above their real possibility. Consequently the “family budget” is under review and all people are trying to cut individual spending in order to be able to sustain the increased tax level (now over 45%) and the high inflation rate (3.3%).

As we explained last month, Italians were using cars in excess, having the world’s 2nd highest number of cars per people after USA, while the pro capita income is one of the last among developed countries, absolutely not comparable with USA.

In recent months, the families have reduced the use of vehicles (YTD March fuel consumptions in Italy dropped over 20%) using more public transportations (sector turnover was up 35%, YTD March). This data are negative for car makers, while could be considered positive for citizens. A more conscious car usage can reduce the traffic congestion and the pollution.

In April a new trend became evident. Considering that fuel price is now closed to euro 2 per liter while CNG price is around the half, people are trading-in fuel or diesel vehicles for a new CNG product. In April CNG mix was over 10% (500% increase over a year ago), but all OEMs are in short supply for this type of engine.

Monti’s Government is strongly acting against the Tax Evasion (in Italy estimated at 17% of GDP, source CIA). The fiscal police is checking the relations between drivers and luxury vehicles. Up to official data, results in this “war” against tax fraudsters are positive. Meanwhile, demand of luxury products vertically dropped!

In April Fiat recovered share over previuos month (21.7% vs. 17.9% in March), thanks to new Panda success and the full availability of CNG/LPG vehicles. However in the YTD April Fiat is still below 20% market share, one of lower share ever achieved in its domestic market.

Volkswagen confirmed its leadership among importers in spite of share at 8.2% was below previous two months. Ford dropped at 6.3%, one of the worst performance in recent ten years! However YTD April Ford was at 7.8%, well ahead of Opel (5.7%) that’s struggling a lot.

April was a positive month (for share) for Citroen and Lancia (both at 5.8%), while Peugeot recovered its 4.4% after the March decline at 3.9%, caused by 207 replacement with New 208 (launched at the end of April). The not availability of CNG is penalizing Toyota, in April dropped again under 3% market share after a very positive first quarter.

In the table below, the Top 20 Brands ranking:

April

YTD April

J

F

M

A

YTD April

Rank

Brands

130.316

538.929

-16,6%

-18,9%

-26,7%

-17,9%

 

1

FIAT

28.262

106.512

20,6%

19,0%

17,9%

21,7%

19,8%

2

VOLKSWAGEN

10.657

45.399

7,9%

8,7%

8,9%

8,2%

8,4%

3

FORD

8.150

41.843

8,6%

8,1%

8,0%

6,3%

7,8%

4

OPEL

7.709

30.793

4,7%

5,4%

6,9%

5,9%

5,7%

5

CITROEN

7.528

28.953

5,5%

5,6%

4,6%

5,8%

5,4%

6

LANCIA

7.502

28.069

5,1%

5,4%

4,7%

5,8%

5,2%

7

PEUGEOT

5.799

23.976

4,7%

4,7%

3,9%

4,4%

4,4%

10

RENAULT

5.748

22.389

3,7%

4,0%

4,6%

4,4%

4,2%

8

TOYOTA

3.762

20.972

3,6%

4,4%

4,7%

2,9%

3,9%

9

NISSAN

4.304

19.713

4,0%

3,7%

3,7%

3,3%

3,7%

11

AUDI

4.128

18.768

3,8%

2,8%

4,1%

3,2%

3,5%

13

HYUNDAI

4.135

16.866

2,9%

3,1%

3,3%

3,2%

3,1%

12

ALFA ROMEO

4.442

16.779

3,2%

3,1%

2,8%

3,4%

3,1%

15

MERCEDES

3.429

15.440

2,9%

2,8%

3,1%

2,6%

2,9%

14

BMW

3.582

15.366

2,8%

3,2%

2,7%

2,7%

2,9%

16

CHEVROLET

4.663

13.287

2,1%

2,3%

1,8%

3,6%

2,5%

17

DACIA

2.567

10.255

2,1%

1,8%

1,7%

2,0%

1,9%

18

KIA

2.080

9.168

1,7%

1,8%

1,7%

1,6%

1,7%

19

SMART

1.972

7.818

1,4%

1,5%

1,4%

1,5%

1,5%

20

MINI

1.669

6.774

1,2%

1,3%

1,2%

1,3%

1,3%

2012 Full Year Forecast

In April the local Association of Manufacturers Importers (Unrae) has not modified its full year 2012 forecast (1.370.000 issued in March) limiting its report over the market at a list of negative data and asking the Government to support the industry.

Focus2move.com full year forecast remains stable at 1.520.000 or 12.7% down. As far as the following year there is big uncertain. Indeed the car market recovery will depend not only by Italian economy recovery. With the current level of fiscal pressure over cars and fuel price, many alternative ways to move result more affordable than the use of a car.

There are rumors that the Government could introduce incentives to Electric Vehicles. In case, this should not really impact the industry.

 

 

 

 

(79)

In the spotlight

Brazil Outlook 2017. Recession is not over

Brazil Automotive Industry outlook in the 2017 is not yet positive albeit the prolonged crisis. Indeed economic perspective are still negative and the sector has not yet bottomed out. Market recovery from 2018