Car industry is suffering the slower economy growth that has frozen customer demand.
During last year the market established its new all-time record volume while the country economic indicators were progressively improving. The inflation index reduction (2011 at 7.8% or 0.8 down on 2010) allowed the Central Bank to reduce the discount rate at 5.25 (from a peak of 15 in 2009). The Commercial bank prime lending rate declined only 3 points (from 19 in 2010 to 16 in 2011), but it was forecast to decline in 2012 increasing liquidity available for car loans.
Approaching the 2012, the OSD (local Association of Automotive Producers) forecast were for a moderate growth, between 6-8% and this prediction was sounding correct to all the sector analysts. In reality the market started very badly and so continued for the entire first quarter. It is importart to underline that the year on year comparison is done with an extraordinary 2011 start. However it is almost difficult to predict a full year recover, after the deep lost performed in Q1.
Focus2move.com is expecting that the market will be positive again, but not before June. The second half 2012 should report a recovery over last year, with a final 2012 volume around 825.000 units, 5.5% down. We have revised our previuos forecast by 50.000 units,
In the first quarter 2012 Tofas/Fiat was leading the market, with 20.331 units and 15.4% market share. But Renault was very aggressive in second position with 18.097 units and 13.7% share. Renault was the market leader in March. Behind Ford was fighting with Volkswagen for the 3rd position. They have achieved respectively a share of 12.4% and 12.3%.
In the table below, the Top 20 Brands ranking:
|
Brand |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Ytd March 2012 |
Share |
|
|
31.196 |
41.324 |
59.884 |
132.404 |
|||
|
1 |
Fiat |
4.423 |
6.708 |
9.200 |
20.331 |
15,4% |
|
2 |
Renault |
3.360 |
5.139 |
9.598 |
18.097 |
13,7% |
|
3 |
Ford |
4.190 |
4.585 |
7.604 |
16.379 |
12,4% |
|
4 |
Volkswagen |
3.848 |
4.950 |
7.459 |
16.257 |
12,3% |
|
5 |
Hyundai |
2.156 |
2.449 |
3.501 |
8.106 |
6,1% |
|
6 |
Opel |
1.151 |
1.840 |
4.561 |
7.552 |
5,7% |
|
7 |
Dacia |
1.180 |
1.659 |
2.494 |
5.333 |
4,0% |
|
8 |
Toyota |
1.141 |
1.538 |
2.266 |
4.945 |
3,7% |
|
9 |
Honda |
1.375 |
1.186 |
1.857 |
4.418 |
3,3% |
|
10 |
Chevrolet |
919 |
1.085 |
2.011 |
4.015 |
3,0% |
|
11 |
Peugeot |
783 |
1.066 |
1.868 |
3.717 |
2,8% |
|
12 |
Citroen |
643 |
1.166 |
1.792 |
3.601 |
2,7% |
|
13 |
Mercedes |
696 |
977 |
1.565 |
3.238 |
2,4% |
|
14 |
Nissan |
393 |
1.062 |
1.492 |
2.947 |
2,2% |
|
15 |
Kia |
509 |
669 |
965 |
2.143 |
1,6% |
|
16 |
BMW |
415 |
537 |
1.081 |
2.033 |
1,5% |
|
17 |
Audi |
378 |
498 |
1.080 |
1.956 |
1,5% |
|
18 |
Skoda |
225 |
570 |
775 |
1.570 |
1,2% |
|
19 |
Mitsubishi |
340 |
296 |
362 |
998 |
0,8% |
|
20 |
Volvo |
211 |
230 |
427 |
868 |
0,7% |
The data referring models are updated at February. Renault Fluence grew from 3rd to 1st position with a share of 4.3%, slightly ahead of Renault Symbol, at 4.2% former full year 2011 market leader, and Fiat Linea at 4.1%.
Hyundai i20 climbed from 12th to 7th position and Renault Megane from 17th to 10th. Opel Astra dropped from 4th to 9th position as Ford Fiesta from 5th to 8th.
Other good performances from Dacia Duster (from 21th to 14th) and Dacia Sandero (from 33th to 15th).
In the table below, the Top 20 Models ranking:
|
Rank |
Model |
Jan |
Feb |
Ytd Feb |
Share |
2011 Ranking |
|
1 |
Renault Fluence |
1449 |
1697 |
3146 |
4,3% |
3 |
|
2 |
Renault Symbol |
1291 |
1735 |
3026 |
4,2% |
1 |
|
3 |
Fiat Linea |
894 |
2046 |
2940 |
4,1% |
2 |
|
4 |
Volkswagen Polo |
806 |
1002 |
1808 |
2,5% |
9 |
|
5 |
Ford Focus |
712 |
962 |
1674 |
2,3% |
8 |
|
6 |
Volkswagen Jetta |
849 |
799 |
1648 |
2,3% |
10 |
|
7 |
Hyundai i20 |
600 |
862 |
1462 |
2,0% |
12 |
|
8 |
Ford Fiesta |
436 |
858 |
1294 |
1,8% |
5 |
|
9 |
Opel Astra |
453 |
796 |
1249 |
1,7% |
4 |
|
10 |
Renault Megane |
587 |
596 |
1183 |
1,6% |
17 |
|
11 |
Volkswagen Golf |
401 |
681 |
1082 |
1,5% |
14 |
|
12 |
Hyundai Accent |
404 |
618 |
1022 |
1,4% |
7 |
|
13 |
Toyota Corolla |
421 |
572 |
993 |
1,4% |
6 |
|
14 |
Dacia Duster |
405 |
563 |
968 |
1,3% |
21 |
|
15 |
Dacia Sandero |
403 |
519 |
922 |
1,3% |
33 |
|
16 |
Volkswagen Passat |
449 |
445 |
894 |
1,2% |
13 |
|
17 |
Opel Corsa |
327 |
558 |
885 |
1,2% |
11 |
|
18 |
Hyundai Accent |
427 |
424 |
851 |
1,2% |
28 |
|
19 |
Nissan Qashqai |
181 |
584 |
765 |
1,1% |
20 |
|
20 |
Renault Clio |
235 |
445 |
680 |
0,9% |
27 |
If you like to download the attached PDF file, you will access to the following charts:
1. Turkey light vehicles industry (2001-2011)
2. Turkey light passengers trend since January 2011
3. Turkey light passengers monthly trend 2010-2012
4. Turkey light passengers 2012 forecast
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