Middle East car market I Half 2012 Outlook. The fight is between Toyota and Hyundai.

The Middle East region covers a large warm territory, cradle of human culture, for centuries united under the Persian Empire. Normally also North African countries are included in the region, but we prefer to border the region to all States between Suez Channel and Iran. At the moment, we are also not including countries of former Soviet Union.

Therefore, countries included in this report are 14: Turkey, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Iran. We are including Iran, considering this market is the biggest in the region, in spite of official data on sales are not available and market volume estimate are based on official production data.

In the 2011, the Middle East sales were 3.6 million, representing the 4.8% of global light vehicles market. In the first part of the 2012, the region was penalized by decline of the two major countries, Iran and Turkey. Although all GCC countries are booming, 2012 is projected flat from 2011.

In the table below, the region countries ordered by size:

Rank

Country

2011

Ytd May

2012 est.

2011

Ytd May

2012 est.

1

Iran

1.121.670

380.000

1.000.000

30,8%

26,5%

27,8%

2

Turkey

872.898

266.216

791.000

23,9%

18,5%

22,0%

3

Saudi Arab

594.299

284.249

663.000

16,3%

19,8%

18,4%

4

United Arab Emirates

243.582

123.483

279.000

6,7%

8,6%

7,7%

5

Israel

225.637

91.191

210.000

6,2%

6,3%

5,8%

6

Oman

168.789

78.742

183.000

4,6%

5,5%

5,1%

7

Kuwait

112.549

57.505

134.000

3,1%

4,0%

3,7%

8

Qatar

62.346

35.401

85.000

1,7%

2,5%

2,4%

9

Iraq

72.000

33.000

79.000

2,0%

2,3%

2,2%

10

Syria

48.400

19.190

51.000

1,3%

1,3%

1,4%

11

Jordan

42.768

28.361

47.000

1,2%

2,0%

1,3%

12

Lebanon

39.204

15.613

39.000

1,1%

1,1%

1,1%

13

Bahrain

31.212

18.668

31.000

0,9%

1,3%

0,9%

14

Yemen

12.000

5.000

11.000

0,3%

0,3%

0,3%

Total Region

3.647.354

1.436.619

3.603.000

100,0%

100,0%

100,0%

Turkey market is very similar to main Europeans markets, with Fiat as market leader and others European makers in the top ranking. Japanese brands are still marginal and Koreans are growing from the bottom. Few Chinese players are present, but with marginal impact over sales.

The countries along the Mediterranean cost have in common a strong Korean brands leadership that, in case of Jordan and Syria, arrives at an embarrassing domain with 19 Koreans products in the top 20 models, while in case of Israel, by Hyundai market leadership.

The countries of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are the exclusive reign of Toyota, leader in all of them with market share between 30 and 50%.

In the tables below, the Top 10 Brands sales and share year to date May 2012 for Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arab, UAE, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar:

Turkey

Israel

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

1

Fiat

42.476

16,0%

1

Hyundai

14.306

15,9%

2

Ford

34.527

13,0%

2

Ford

9.453

10,1%

3

Renault

33.716

12,7%

3

Kia

9.395

9,9%

4

Volkswagen

33.506

12,6%

4

Toyota

7.477

8,4%

5

Opel

15.830

5,9%

5

Nissan

4.828

5,2%

6

Hyundai

15.126

5,7%

6

Skoda

4.687

5,3%

7

Toyota

10.084

3,8%

7

Mazda

4.617

5,7%

8

Dacia

9.983

3,7%

8

Volkswagen

4.453

4,8%

9

Peugeot

7.934

3,0%

9

Suzuki

4.214

4,4%

10

Chevrolet

7.702

2,9%

10

Seat

3.636

3,7%

Saudi Arab

United Arab Emirates

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

1

Toyota

110.444

38,9%

1

Toyota

42.257

34,2%

2

Hyundai

54.518

19,2%

2

Nissan

17.093

13,8%

3

Kia

18.440

6,5%

3

Hyundai

8.066

6,5%

4

Chevrolet

16.613

5,8%

4

Mitsubishi

7.471

6,1%

5

Ford

15.116

5,3%

5

Ford

5.619

4,6%

6

Isuzu

14.138

5,0%

6

Fuso

4.964

4,0%

7

GMC

12.230

4,3%

7

Kia

4.644

3,8%

8

Honda

5.783

2,0%

8

Bmw

4.372

3,5%

9

Daihatsu

5.224

1,8%

9

Honda

2.883

2,3%

10

Lexus

3.481

1,2%

10

Lexus

2.476

2,0%

Oman

Bahrain

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

1

Toyota

41.709

53,0%

1

Toyota

7.084

37,6%

2

Nissan

10.073

12,8%

2

Nissan

2.500

13,3%

3

Hyundai

7.375

9,4%

3

Hyundai

2.054

10,9%

4

Kia

5.387

6,8%

4

Kia

1.186

6,3%

5

Lexus

2.165

2,7%

5

Mitsubishi

621

3,3%

6

Isuzu

1.246

1,6%

6

Honda

539

2,9%

7

Mitsubishi

1.166

1,5%

7

Lexus

458

2,4%

8

Fuso

1.116

1,4%

8

BMW

352

1,9%

9

Honda

745

0,9%

9

Ford

296

1,6%

10

Chevrolet

666

0,8%

10

Volkswagen

287

1,5%

Kuwait

Qatar

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

Rank

Brand

Ytd May

Share

1

Toyota

16.727

29,1%

1

Toyota

13.153

37,2%

2

Nissan

6.460

11,2%

2

Nissan

5.751

16,2%

3

Chevrolet

4.696

8,2%

3

Hyundai

2.617

7,4%

4

Mitsubishi

3.616

6,3%

4

Chevrolet

1.456

4,1%

5

Hyundai

3.486

6,1%

5

GMC

1.164

3,3%

6

Kia

3.380

5,9%

6

Kia

1.046

3,0%

7

Ford

2.838

4,9%

7

Lexus

1.024

2,9%

8

Lexus

1.090

1,9%

8

Honda

967

2,7%

9

Dodge

987

1,7%

9

Mitsubishi

866

2,4%

10

GMC

974

1,7%

10

Fuso

701

2,0%

As far as the others country, the biggest is Iraq, with estimated sales of new vehicles above 70.000 units per year. This market is re-starting after the long war and the not stable peace. The potential is huge, considering the population of 31 million people and the low car park. However, the purchase power is still very low, with pro capita income at US $ 3.900 (2011). GDP is growing fast (2011 at 9.8%) and should be double digit in the next 5 years, pushing market volume up. Car makers are re-organizing their structure with GM and Hyundai faster than others.

Syria and Lebanon markets are stable and uncertain, dominated by Koreans.

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