Poland: Automotive Industry – Outlook.

Poland is an ancient country, born again in the 1990. A progressive liberalization pursued in the economic policy created one of strongest economy in East Europe, the only able to avoid recession during 2008 global financial crisis (2009 GDP at 1.9). Joining EU in 2004 gave access to EU structural funds with a fast development of industrial and service economy, with GDP growing at 3.8 in 2010 and 2011, well ahead of EU average.

However, unemployment rate at 12% and inflation rate at 4% remain higher than EU average. Future development have to face limits in the infrastructure network, not yet adequate to a country positioned in the core of new economy pathway, between Berlin and Moscow.

The automotive sector represents around 11% of total industrial production and 4% of GDP, with a light vehicle production of 837.000 in the 2011, the world’s 19th. The sector employs over 130.000 people in plants and R&D center, plus around 30.000 in the over 1.100 dealerships.

Since 1990, many global automotive OEMs started production in Poland, including Fiat, Opel, Volkswagen, Toyota, Delphi, Faurecia, Isuzu, Eaton, Lear and Volvo. Investments had been concentrated in four manufacturing clusters located on the outskirts of four major cities, Waesaw, Katowice, Wroclaw and Poznan.

As reported by focus2move.com, Poland, with over 38 million habitants and a still low circulating park, represents a potential light passengers market of more than 1 million sales per year. In the reality and in spiteof the huge market increase after the country joined European Community in the 2004, actual registrations are only around 300.000. In the 2011 sales were 277.600 cars, down 16.8% down from 2010, and plus 42.000 LCV, down 24.0% from the 2008 all-time record.

The new car market is limited by huge demension of imported used vehicles from the rest of Europe, Germany over all. This unique market was only 35.000 units in the 2003, to jump at 1 million in the 2007. After a progressive decline, the number of imported used vehicles in 2011 was 655.000 units.

In the table below, the data regarding this market between 2003 and 2011:

 

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

TOTAL

2003

1.088

1.126

1.615

1.623

1.791

1.821

2.043

2.302

4.501

6.550

5.874

5.402

35.736

2004

3.019

3.876

4.344

5.080

32.013

110.282

130.413

131.208

120.510

91.426

81.473

114.498

828.142

2005

55.738

64.364

72.841

78.209

85.842

80.193

73.236

73.958

69.909

69.585

67.069

79.833

870.777

2006

38.429

38.135

50.034

61.340

80.225

79.457

74.850

80.999

75.787

80.955

75.478

81.100

816.789

2007

69.955

65.161

82.435

78.249

87.098

82.643

92.022

88.923

80.944

95.188

84.525

87.421

994.564

2008

69.461

85.455

92.370

106.450

100.400

105.059

126.923

89.732

94.719

93.794

64.136

75.471

1.103.970

2009

42.983

41.716

49.289

58.152

61.625

64.426

68.255

67.763

70.712

68.576

54.536

45.291

693.324

2010

44.771

53.299

75.285

66.377

64.654

64.338

66.583

64.944

63.637

64.168

52.564

37.666

718.286

2011

47.085

53.040

62.670

57.196

61.413

59.077

63.490

57.472

56.464

53.316

44.775

39.316

655.314

After the all time record achieved in the 2010, last year the Poland new cars market was negative, with 277.000 total sale, down 9.1%.

Skoda was the market leader with 32.404 sales and 11.7% market share, followed by Ford, with a share of 8.3%, and Opel, with a share of 7.9%. Chevrolet, 13th at 2.8%, up 24% from previous year, Nissan, 9th at 5.0%, up 14.6%, and Dacia, 18th at 1.8% up 12.% were the winnes.

In the table below, the Top 20 brands in the full year 2011:


 

 

YTD January – December

2011

2010

Change % y/y

Rank

Brand

Total

Mkt shr %

Total

Mkt shr %

 

1

Skoda

32.404

11,7%

35.627

11,3%

-9,0%

2

Ford

23.151

8,3%

25.544

8,1%

-9,4%

3

Opel

21.922

7,9%

25.070

7,9%

-12,6%

4

Volkswagen

19.947

7,2%

20.021

6,3%

-0,4%

5

Toyota

18.866

6,8%

24.220

7,7%

-22,1%

6

Fiat

17.641

6,4%

23.973

7,6%

-26,4%

7

Renault

16.936

6,1%

18.824

6,0%

-10,0%

8

Hyundai

14.119

5,1%

14.000

4,4%

0,8%

9

Nissan

13.922

5,0%

12.152

3,8%

14,6%

10

Kia

12.735

4,6%

15.615

4,9%

-18,4%

11

Peugeot

11.170

4,0%

14.037

4,4%

-20,4%

12

Citroen

10.544

3,8%

13.523

4,3%

-22,0%

13

Chevrolet

7.660

2,8%

6.184

2,0%

23,9%

14

Suzuki

7.102

2,6%

6.745

2,1%

5,3%

15

Honda

6.790

2,4%

10.824

3,4%

-37,3%

16

Mitsubishi

6.168

2,2%

9.246

2,9%

-33,3%

17

Volvo

4.954

1,8%

5.084

1,6%

-2,6%

18

Dacia

4.867

1,8%

4.340

1,4%

12,1%

19

Mercedes-Benz

4.862

1,8%

4.909

1,6%

-1,0%

20

BMW

4.558

1,6%

5.626

1,8%

-19,0%

Others

17.112

6,2%

20.294

6,4%

-15,7%

TOTAL

277.430

100%

315.858

100%

-12,2%

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