Spain car market collapsed 36% in September 2012. Scrap incentives are arriving.

Year-to-date September sales were 555.418, down 11.0% from last year. In spite of focus2move.com full year forecast were the more pessimistic among analysts, we have further reduced them and now expect only 710.000 units, down 11% from last year, having reduced by 20.000 our expectations.

However, the Spanish government just announced the launch of a scrap incentive program, as in the past others left wings government did in Europe (without real middle term effects) to sustain the market and the GDP data (considering the high cars value).

It is not easy to understand the decision to increase VAT to everybody, reducing the spending power and the start of incentive to purchase vehicles. As many international studies have demonstrated, this kind of incentives never had effects in the middle term, while creates immediate demand for cars with disadvantages for others sectors. People is pushed to anticipate the car renewal and as the incentive period is over, the market drops. The Spanish plan, called P.I.V.E., should reserve € 2.000 of rebate on the purchase of a low emission vehicle up front of scrapping a 10+ year old car.

Looking at September:

Peugeot was market leader in September, surging in 2nd position year-to-date. It sold 2.714 cars with a share of 8.1%. The third quarter share was 7.9%, down 0.6 points of share from Q2 and in line with Q1 and full year 2011. The best-selling model was the 308, ranked 9th year-to-date.

Volkswagen was 2nd, outpaced by Peugeot, while still leader year-to-date. It sold 2.714 units with a share of 7.7%. In the Q3 share was 8.7%, declining from previous quarters. Year-to-date sales exceeded the 50.000 units.

Ford was on the podium, 3rd with 2.711 sales (5th year-to-date) and a share of 7.7%. However the Q3 share was only 7.3%, up 0.1 points from Q2 and down from Q1 and 2011. Focus and Fiesta are slipping down in the ranking and year-to-date September were respectively 10th and 11th.

Renault was 4th with 2.700 units and a share of 7.7%. The Q3 share at 7.6% was up 1.0 points from the weak Q2 and down 0.3 points from Q1.

Opel was 5th, with 2.371 units (7th year-to-date) and a share of 6.7%, followed by BMW which posted a really strong performance, with 2.324 units and 6.6% of share and two models in the Top 10. We prefer to wait for October data to understand if this performance was true or vehicles were simply registered and parked somewhere.

Citroen, 7th with 2.150 sales and 6.1% of share and Toyota, 8th with 1.979 sales and 5.9% of share.

Seat dropped in 9th position (3rd year-to-date) with 1.969 sales and 5.6% of share (in 2011 it was 9.1%) showing how the large use of self-registrations causes sharp up and down.

In the table below, the best-selling 25 brands, ordered by year-to-date position:

Rank

Brand

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

2011

Q1

Q2

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

1

Volkswagen

2.714

12.778

50.713

8,9%

9,3%

9,7%

7,7%

8,7%

9,3%

2

Peugeot

2.835

11.560

44.287

7,9%

7,9%

8,5%

8,1%

7,9%

8,1%

3

Seat

1.969

10.763

43.141

9,1%

7,8%

8,4%

5,6%

7,3%

7,9%

4

Citroen

2.150

10.384

42.740

7,3%

8,0%

8,2%

6,1%

7,1%

7,8%

5

Ford

2.711

10.715

41.532

8,0%

8,2%

7,2%

7,7%

7,3%

7,6%

6

Renault

2.700

11.205

40.659

7,9%

6,6%

8,2%

7,7%

7,6%

7,4%

7

Opel

2.371

10.524

40.158

7,2%

6,9%

7,9%

6,7%

7,2%

7,3%

8

Audi

1.871

8.001

29.435

4,7%

5,3%

5,5%

5,3%

5,4%

5,4%

9

Toyota

1.979

8.626

28.707

4,8%

5,4%

4,6%

5,6%

5,9%

5,3%

10

Nissan

1.879

7.409

27.850

4,9%

5,6%

4,7%

5,3%

5,0%

5,1%

11

Hyundai

1.328

6.582

21.841

3,5%

4,0%

3,6%

3,8%

4,5%

4,0%

12

BMW

2.324

5.904

20.002

3,5%

4,0%

3,1%

6,6%

4,0%

3,7%

13

Mercedes

1.282

4.728

16.668

2,9%

3,1%

2,9%

3,6%

3,2%

3,0%

14

Kia

1.286

4.814

14.448

2,4%

2,6%

2,3%

3,7%

3,3%

2,6%

15

Fiat

773

2.891

12.982

2,0%

2,5%

2,5%

2,2%

2,0%

2,4%

16

Chevrolet

725

3.527

12.524

2,2%

2,2%

2,3%

2,1%

2,4%

2,3%

17

Skoda

578

2.795

11.715

2,0%

2,3%

2,1%

1,6%

1,9%

2,1%

18

Dacia

769

3.900

12.290

1,9%

1,9%

2,3%

2,2%

2,7%

2,2%

19

Mini

403

1.572

5.915

1,0%

1,1%

1,0%

1,1%

1,1%

1,1%

20

Land Rover

293

1.290

4.991

0,6%

1,0%

0,9%

0,8%

0,9%

0,9%

21

Volvo

441

1.177

4.772

1,1%

0,9%

0,9%

1,3%

0,8%

0,9%

22

Honda

327

1.530

4.464

1,0%

0,8%

0,7%

0,9%

1,0%

0,8%

23

Mazda

250

1.062

3.694

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

0,7%

24

Alfa Romeo

197

1.032

3.081

0,6%

0,5%

0,6%

0,6%

0,7%

0,6%

25

Mitsubishi

224

1.015

3.162

0,9%

0,6%

0,5%

0,6%

0,7%

0,6%

Looking at the best-selling models, the fact of the month was the landing in third position of BMW 3 series, for the first time ever, with 893 sales. The new BMW is now ranked 40th year-to-date.

The market Leader was the Renault Megane, with 1.177 sales and a share of 3.3%, one of the best this year, followed by the Nissan Qashqai with 1.101 units and 3.1% of share.

The year-to-date Leader, Seat Ibiza was 4th with 810 sales. Ford Fiesta recovered the August drop and resurged in 6th position.

The Peugeot 208 landed into the Top 10 for the first time and with 715 units was 7th. Other surprise was the BMW1 Series jump in the 10th position with 636 units.

In the table below, the best-selling 40 models, ranked for the year-to-date position:

Rank

Model

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

I Half

Aug

Sep

Q3

Ytd Sep

1

Seat Ibiza

810

4.080

19.818

3,9%

2,7%

2,3%

2,8%

3,6%

2

Nissan Qashqai

1.101

4.625

17.524

3,2%

3,2%

3,1%

3,1%

3,2%

3

Renault Megane

1.177

4.235

16.408

3,0%

2,4%

3,3%

2,9%

3,0%

4

Volkswagen Golf

712

3.686

14.708

2,8%

2,8%

2,0%

2,5%

2,7%

5

Volkswagen Polo

540

3.085

14.449

2,8%

1,9%

1,5%

2,1%

2,6%

6

Opel Corsa

561

2.627

13.770

2,8%

1,4%

1,6%

1,8%

2,5%

7

Citroen C4

450

2.954

13.042

2,5%

2,0%

1,3%

2,0%

2,4%

8

Seat Leon

644

3.607

12.347

2,2%

2,9%

1,8%

2,5%

2,3%

9

Peugeot 308

616

2.759

11.935

2,3%

2,0%

1,7%

1,9%

2,2%

10

Ford Focus

615

2.915

11.120

2,1%

2,1%

1,7%

2,0%

2,0%

11

Ford Fiesta

729

2.223

11.007

2,2%

1,2%

2,1%

1,5%

2,0%

12

Peugeot 207

302

1.837

10.999

2,3%

1,1%

0,9%

1,2%

2,0%

13

Citroen C3

396

2.467

10.639

2,0%

1,9%

1,1%

1,7%

1,9%

14

Opel Astra

788

2.446

10.377

2,0%

3,0%

2,2%

1,7%

1,9%

15

Citroen C4 Picasso

532

2.538

9.816

1,8%

1,8%

1,5%

1,7%

1,8%

16

Renault Clio

582

2.680

9.067

1,6%

1,4%

1,7%

1,8%

1,7%

17

Ford C-Max

584

2.478

8.149

1,4%

1,7%

1,7%

1,7%

1,5%

18

Toyota Auris

501

2.389

7.943

1,4%

2,0%

1,4%

1,6%

1,5%

19

Renault Scenic

514

2.262

7.681

1,4%

1,2%

1,5%

1,5%

1,4%

20

Hyundai ix35

477

2.357

7.252

1,2%

1,7%

1,4%

1,6%

1,3%

21

Audi A3

487

1.644

6.518

1,2%

1,0%

1,4%

1,1%

1,2%

22

BMW 1-Series

636

1.487

6.445

1,2%

0,9%

1,8%

1,0%

1,2%

23

Dacia Sandero

446

1.973

6.418

1,1%

1,6%

1,3%

1,3%

1,2%

24

Opel Insignia

421

1.675

6.247

1,1%

1,0%

1,2%

1,1%

1,1%

25

Toyota Yaris

443

1.830

6.206

1,1%

1,2%

1,3%

1,2%

1,1%

26

Volkswagen Passat

484

1.738

6.116

1,1%

1,0%

1,4%

1,2%

1,1%

27

Seat Altea

221

1.605

6.073

1,1%

1,0%

0,6%

1,1%

1,1%

28

Audi A4

363

1.762

6.046

1,1%

1,1%

1,0%

1,2%

1,1%

29

Hyundai i30

387

1.898

5.774

1,0%

1,4%

1,1%

1,3%

1,1%

30

Nissan Juke

439

1.738

5.696

1,0%

1,2%

1,2%

1,2%

1,0%

31

Kia Sportage

480

1.905

5.680

0,9%

1,1%

1,4%

1,3%

1,0%

32

Volkswagen Tiguan

301

1.644

5.509

1,0%

1,2%

0,9%

1,1%

1,0%

33

Peugeot 208

715

2.509

5.502

0,7%

1,0%

2,0%

1,7%

1,0%

34

Skoda Fabia

217

1.230

5.393

1,0%

0,8%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

35

Fiat 500

170

1.004

5.340

1,1%

0,5%

0,5%

0,7%

1,0%

36

Mercedes C Class

270

1.402

5.279

1,0%

1,1%

0,8%

1,0%

1,0%

37

Peugeot 3008

313

1.072

4.947

1,0%

0,7%

0,9%

0,7%

0,9%

38

Audi A1

290

1.142

4.814

0,9%

0,7%

0,8%

0,8%

0,9%

39

Peugeot 508

358

1.330

4.727

0,8%

0,9%

1,0%

0,9%

0,9%

40

BMW 3-Series

893

1.801

4.566

0,7%

0,9%

2,5%

1,2%

0,8%

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