Flash Reports

Ukraine car industry: May 2012 outlook. Hyundai new leader

It is very hard to imagine the effect of a market drop from 0.7 to 0.2 million in one year, but that is what happened to the Ukraine car market in 2009 when the global financial crisis ended the string of yearly increases between 2003 and 2008.

Ukraine was a market with huge potential: 45 million people with increasing purchasing power and the desire to possess a new car. So it was no surprise when the market jumped from 193.800 units in 2003 to 696.900 in 2008. At that time, key consulting firms were predicting growth up to 1 or 1.5 million vehicles in 3 or 5 years.

The reality was different! In 2009, the industry dropped by 70.8% to 204.600 units. That was the biggest drop in the world that year, similar only to the one registered in Russia (51% down in 2009). However, all other markets hit by the crisis recovered in the following year, while the Ukraine market continued to decline in 2010, down another 17% at 169.555.

The recovery started only in January 2011, when the market finally posted its first positive month year on year. The full year 2011 ended at 209.385, up 23% from 2010, but still well below the 2008 peak.

Light vehicle production followed the domestic market sales trend, peaking at 423.000 units in 2008; in 2009 it dropped to only 69.000 units, before recovering to 105.000 in 2011.

2012 market trend and perspectives

In the first four months of 2012, the market has continued to recover, with 78.088 sales, up 38%. In April, the market was 24.396, up 31.6% from last year.

A revolution is changing the market, with the domestic producers, Lada and Zaz, declining under the attack of many competitors. Lada is still the market leader year to date April, but in April, Hyundai was the new market leader with 9.7% market share and 2.358 sales, 240 units more than Lada.

Zaz was third last year, surpassed by Hyundai. This year Volkswagen is also ahead, after a year on year increase of 111%, and with a share of 7.8%. Zaz is 4th, declining 5.3% from last year, with a share of 6.7%, followed by Kia, at 6.1%.

In the table below, the Top 25 brands, ranked for year to date position:

Rank

Brand

Apr 12

YTD Apr

+/-

J

F

M

A

YTD Apr

1

BA3 (Lada)

2.118

7.529

-26,4%

8,8%

9,8%

11,0%

8,7%

9,6%

2

Hyundai

2.358

7.149

36,7%

9,0%

9,0%

8,8%

9,7%

9,2%

3

Volkswagen

1.781

6.061

111,3%

7,1%

8,8%

7,9%

7,3%

7,8%

4

ЗАЗ (Zaz)

1.633

5.212

-5,3%

7,6%

6,6%

6,2%

6,7%

6,7%

5

Kia

1.574

4.795

79,4%

6,2%

5,8%

6,0%

6,5%

6,1%

6

Renault

1.319

4.412

43,3%

5,7%

5,9%

5,7%

5,4%

5,7%

7

Toyota

1.302

4.359

21,9%

5,9%

5,5%

5,7%

5,3%

5,6%

8

Skoda

1.369

4.301

41,7%

3,8%

5,2%

6,5%

5,6%

5,5%

9

Chevrolet

1.238

3.874

36,9%

6,8%

4,6%

4,1%

5,1%

5,0%

10

Nissan

976

3.789

46,6%

5,2%

5,5%

5,1%

4,0%

4,9%

11

Ford

862

3.267

41,5%

4,8%

4,5%

4,3%

3,5%

4,2%

12

Geely

644

2.935

71,6%

4,3%

3,8%

4,5%

2,6%

3,8%

13

Mitsubishi

496

1.748

-18,2%

2,1%

2,7%

2,2%

2,0%

2,2%

14

Peugeot

459

1.509

45,1%

1,7%

2,0%

2,1%

1,9%

1,9%

15

Daewoo

395

1.324

28,4%

1,9%

1,6%

1,7%

1,6%

1,7%

16

Fiat

373

1.306

44,6%

1,6%

1,8%

1,8%

1,5%

1,7%

17

Chery

365

1.152

19,1%

1,4%

1,4%

1,5%

1,5%

1,5%

18

Citroen

336

924

141,3%

1,3%

1,3%

0,8%

1,4%

1,2%

19

Mercedes

308

911

71,2%

1,4%

1,1%

1,0%

1,3%

1,2%

20

Ssangong

250

801

61,5%

1,1%

1,2%

0,9%

1,0%

1,0%

21

Honda

281

797

-29,3%

0,8%

1,0%

1,1%

1,2%

1,0%

22

Audi

224

777

97,7%

1,0%

1,3%

0,9%

0,9%

1,0%

23

BMW

201

721

69,2%

0,9%

1,0%

0,9%

0,8%

0,9%

24

Opel

216

621

68,8%

0,6%

0,7%

0,9%

0,9%

0,8%

25

Lexus

154

514

-25,3%

0,6%

0,6%

0,7%

0,6%

0,7%

 

Looking at the best models, Lada has already lost the leadership. The top selling model is the Skoda Octavia, with 2.779 units sold year to date April and 3.6% share. Last year it was 4th. The Lada Samara remains in second with 2.159 units and 2.8% share, ahead of the growing Zaz Sens at 1.953 units and 2.5% share. The former leader, the Zaz Lanos is now only 5th.

The new Kia Rio had the biggest jump in the top 20, rising from 34th in 2011 to 6th year to date (4th in April).

In the table below, the Top 30 best selling models, ranked by year to date position:

Rank

Model

Apr

YTD April

Apr

YTD April

2011

1

Skoda Octavia

833

2779

3,4%

3,6%

4

2

Lada Samara

623

2159

2,6%

2,8%

2

3

ZAZ Sens

541

1953

2,2%

2,5%

8

4

Hyundai Accent

724

1929

3,0%

2,5%

5

5

ZAZ Lanos

522

1888

2,1%

2,4%

1

6

Kia Rio

592

1764

2,4%

2,3%

34

7

Volkswagen Polo

475

1745

1,9%

2,2%

12

8

Renault Logan

448

1643

1,8%

2,1%

7

9

Chevrolet Aveo

527

1606

2,2%

2,1%

6

10

Lada Priora

403

1408

1,7%

1,8%

3

11

Geely CK

248

1279

1,0%

1,6%

15

12

Hyundai Elantra

408

1010

1,7%

1,3%

14

13

Skoda Fabia

376

979

1,5%

1,3%

13

14

Kia Sportage

326

973

1,3%

1,2%

30

15

Lada 4×4

321

937

1,3%

1,2%

19

16

ZAZ Forza

292

864

1,2%

1,1%

21

17

Renault Duster

215

750

0,9%

1,0%

31

18

Daewoo Matiz

217

739

0,9%

0,9%

10

19

Toyota Camry

176

731

0,7%

0,9%

36

20

Chevrolet Nubira/Lacetti

221

729

0,9%

0,9%

25

21

Volkswagen Passat

207

708

0,8%

0,9%

32

22

Nissan Juke

211

704

0,9%

0,9%

66

23

Hyundai Tucson

161

704

0,7%

0,9%

37

24

Toyota Corolla

184

665

0,8%

0,9%

16

25

Ford Fiesta

183

662

0,8%

0,8%

38

26

Hyundai Santa Fe

192

656

0,8%

0,8%

27

27

Nissan Qashqai

172

641

0,7%

0,8%

17

28

Chevrolet Cruze

209

638

0,9%

0,8%

48

29

Volkswagen Golf

206

630

0,8%

0,8%

40

30

Geely MK

196

626

0,8%

0,8%

28

Note: rank elaborated by focus2move.com on data sourced from: www.bestsellingcarsblog.com

 

We wish to thank our friend Scott Landy for editing this article.

 

 

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