Volkswagen emissions scandal could cost over 80 billion euros and the global leadership. This report provides the VW Groups global sales updated at August 2015, when it was vis-a-vi with Toyota on top of the World.
The fact
In September 2015, Volkswagen admitted to using illegally installed software to change emissions test results for 11 million of its diesel engine cars sold between 2009 and 2015.
The deception resulted in engines passing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards and yet having vehicles emitting up to 40 times the legal limit of nitrogen oxides. The company has apologized for creating the emissions scandal while the disclosures have brought into question whether their diesel engines were actually cleaner for the environment than regular gasoline engines.
The software “defeat device” came to light after a series of investigations of Volkswagen’s diesel engines by the EPA and the California Air Resources Board. The scrutiny focused on Volkswagen AG’s use of engine control unit firmware programming techniques in vehicles equipped with TDI diesel engines to skirt vehicle emissions compliance laws in the United States.
The question
Vehicles involved in the biggest fraud ever put in place worldwide could be over 40 millions, involving European and Korean sales.In addition a big question is: without the magic software”:
Is Volkswagen Group able to match current emission stage in US and Europe with current line up?
Probably not for the top of line up (Bentley, Porsche, Audi) and partially for smaller vehicles. In case, on top of the huge financial cost for re-call campaigns and penalty (18 billion dollars just in US) and the immense brands reputation damage, the Group will also be forced to break distribution of several models, specially those profitable.
The cost could be estimated between 80 and 100 billion euros (the Group has allocated reserves on Q3 2015 for 6.5 billion euros) with a radical restructuring of all the operations and losing not only the leadership but probably the podium in the global ranking.
In the table below we report over the Volkswagen Group (all brands) global sales distribution after the first eight month of the year.
Data are sourced by Focus2move Mobility Database, aggregated with global light vehicles sales in over 120 countries sourced by over 250 different providers.
| Rank Aug | Rank 2015 | Country | Sales Aug | Sales YTD | Var Aug | Var 2015 | Share Aug | Share YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | China | 274.982 | 2.340.493 | -7,0% | -7,4% | 38,4% | 35,6% |
| 2 | 2 | Germany | 86.934 | 894.862 | -1,8% | 6,2% | 12,1% | 13,6% |
| 3 | 3 | USA | 56.425 | 405.147 | -1,1% | 2,7% | 7,9% | 6,2% |
| 5 | 4 | UK | 19.455 | 365.933 | 13,5% | 5,8% | 2,7% | 5,6% |
| 4 | 5 | Brazil | 30.344 | 268.354 | -38,6% | -30,2% | 4,2% | 4,1% |
| 10 | 6 | Spain | 13.523 | 181.650 | 27,2% | 19,3% | 1,9% | 2,8% |
| 8 | 7 | France | 15.394 | 179.030 | 11,7% | 4,6% | 2,2% | 2,7% |
| 14 | 8 | Italy | 8.909 | 148.004 | 6,8% | 9,5% | 1,2% | 2,3% |
| 7 | 9 | Mexico | 17.563 | 137.143 | 8,7% | 10,0% | 2,5% | 2,1% |
| 6 | 10 | Turkey | 18.529 | 131.087 | 37,8% | 49,7% | 2,6% | 2,0% |
| 9 | 11 | Russia | 13.941 | 109.298 | -27,3% | -38,1% | 1,9% | 1,7% |
| 20 | 12 | Belgium | 7.201 | 83.951 | 4,0% | 4,6% | 1,0% | 1,3% |
| 13 | 13 | Sweden | 9.440 | 78.261 | 13,8% | 28,1% | 1,3% | 1,2% |
| 17 | 14 | Netherlands | 7.782 | 77.093 | 3,5% | 5,7% | 1,1% | 1,2% |
| 19 | 15 | Argentina | 7.388 | 76.791 | -15,0% | -0,2% | 1,0% | 1,2% |
| 12 | 16 | Czech Rep | 9.752 | 74.307 | 60,4% | 31,1% | 1,4% | 1,1% |
| 16 | 17 | Austria | 8.172 | 73.862 | 2,0% | -3,1% | 1,1% | 1,1% |
| 11 | 18 | Canada | 9.921 | 73.046 | 7,0% | 14,5% | 1,4% | 1,1% |
| 22 | 19 | Poland | 6.363 | 65.706 | 14,7% | 4,4% | 0,9% | 1,0% |
| 25 | 20 | Switzerland | 6.014 | 65.167 | 0,3% | 10,7% | 0,8% | 1,0% |
| 15 | 21 | South Africa | 8.485 | 64.226 | -2,3% | -10,9% | 1,2% | 1,0% |
| 21 | 22 | Japan | 7.033 | 62.878 | 18,5% | -5,4% | 1,0% | 1,0% |
| 18 | 23 | Australia | 7.444 | 62.844 | 20,1% | 16,8% | 1,0% | 1,0% |
| 23 | 24 | India | 6.336 | 50.527 | 0,3% | 11,8% | 0,9% | 0,8% |
| 24 | 25 | South Korea | 6.290 | 47.865 | 15,4% | 13,8% | 0,9% | 0,7% |
| 28 | 26 | Denmark | 3.993 | 34.525 | -4,7% | -1,0% | 0,6% | 0,5% |
| 27 | 27 | Norway | 4.540 | 34.440 | 4,1% | 12,5% | 0,6% | 0,5% |
| 26 | 28 | Algeria | 5.570 | 31.742 | 8,0% | -13,7% | 0,8% | 0,5% |
| 34 | 29 | Ireland | 1.727 | 30.886 | 10,0% | 22,2% | 0,2% | 0,5% |
| 30 | 30 | Portugal | 2.407 | 28.317 | 22,0% | 22,7% | 0,3% | 0,4% |
| 29 | 31 | Israel | 2.818 | 25.740 | 8,0% | 17,5% | 0,4% | 0,4% |
| 32 | 32 | Finland | 2.148 | 21.198 | 1,0% | -4,8% | 0,3% | 0,3% |
| 33 | 33 | Taiwan | 1.748 | 18.804 | -0,7% | 1,6% | 0,2% | 0,3% |
| 31 | 34 | Slovakia | 2.266 | 18.243 | 0,2% | 4,6% | 0,3% | 0,3% |
| 37 | 35 | Slovenia | 1.163 | 12.409 | -2,4% | 12,2% | 0,2% | 0,2% |
| 38 | 36 | Hungary | 1.124 | 11.385 | 23,5% | 16,8% | 0,2% | 0,2% |
| 35 | 37 | Romania | 1.697 | 10.942 | 21,2% | 13,2% | 0,2% | 0,2% |
| 36 | 38 | United Arab Emirates | 1.589 | 10.560 | 0,3% | 0,3% | 0,2% | 0,2% |
| 50 | 39 | Greece | 648 | 10.091 | -13,4% | -3,6% | 0,1% | 0,2% |
| 49 | 40 | Luxembourg | 666 | 9.586 | 1,1% | -3,0% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 52 | 41 | Croatia | 558 | 8.457 | 27,4% | -0,5% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 39 | 42 | Egypt | 1.117 | 7.330 | -5,0% | 18,2% | 0,2% | 0,1% |
| 43 | 43 | Morocco | 827 | 7.100 | -6,1% | 1,9% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 42 | 44 | Colombia | 845 | 6.818 | 35,0% | -7,4% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 45 | 45 | Malaysia | 769 | 6.180 | 3,0% | -23,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 48 | 46 | New Zealand | 683 | 6.010 | 0,0% | 2,0% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 54 | 47 | Tunisia | 486 | 4.931 | -8,0% | 0,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 47 | 48 | Chile | 686 | 4.622 | -43,6% | -28,1% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 46 | 49 | Hong Kong | 690 | 4.565 | 0,7% | -14,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 60 | 50 | Serbia | 365 | 4.278 | 1,4% | -2,5% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 40 | 51 | Kazakhstan | 1.076 | 4.237 | 0,4% | -28,8% | 0,2% | 0,1% |
| 41 | 52 | Ukraine | 854 | 3.960 | 0,7% | -60,1% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 53 | 53 | Kuwait | 507 | 3.950 | 2,0% | 10,9% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 57 | 54 | Uruguay | 437 | 3.909 | 9,8% | 14,2% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 51 | 55 | Singapore | 580 | 3.900 | 42,5% | 33,1% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 44 | 56 | Peru | 796 | 3.819 | 9,0% | -1,1% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 56 | 57 | Saudi Arabia | 441 | 3.788 | 1,6% | 1,0% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 58 | 58 | Bulgaria | 417 | 3.749 | -4,0% | 10,3% | 0,1% | 0,1% |
| 61 | 59 | Belarus | 365 | 3.285 | -24,0% | -14,5% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 59 | 60 | Estonia | 395 | 3.160 | 2,0% | 3,3% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 63 | 61 | Lithuania | 295 | 3.048 | 15,6% | 22,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 55 | 62 | Latvia | 475 | 2.987 | 20,6% | 3,7% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 65 | 63 | Namibia | 292 | 2.335 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 78 | 64 | Iceland | 115 | 2.267 | 3,7% | 19,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 66 | 65 | Botswana | 279 | 2.171 | 9,0% | 9,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 68 | 66 | Reunion | 272 | 2.069 | 2,0% | -0,9% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 62 | 67 | Qatar | 364 | 2.048 | 4,3% | 5,3% | 0,1% | 0,0% |
| 67 | 68 | Bosnia | 274 | 1.899 | 5,0% | 5,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 73 | 69 | Nigeria | 187 | 1.765 | 7,5% | 7,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 69 | 70 | Ecuador | 222 | 1.756 | 9,0% | 9,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 64 | 71 | Vietnam | 294 | 1.620 | 1,1% | -21,8% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 70 | 72 | Paraguay | 205 | 1.540 | 2,0% | 2,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 72 | 73 | Oman | 195 | 1.462 | 2,7% | 3,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 71 | 74 | Bahrain | 204 | 1.262 | 5,0% | 8,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 75 | Guadeloupe | 1.240 | -100,0% | -9,9% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 76 | 76 | Bolivia | 130 | 1.038 | 9,0% | 9,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 81 | 77 | Panama | 82 | 1.034 | 2,0% | 36,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 75 | 78 | Lebanon | 131 | 1.016 | 4,1% | -16,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 87 | 79 | Costa Rica | 49 | 1.004 | 9,1% | 3,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 79 | 80 | Macedonia | 101 | 912 | 1,0% | 8,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 74 | 81 | Philippines | 150 | 868 | 26,4% | 33,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 77 | 82 | Indonesia | 129 | 826 | 1,6% | 15,4% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 80 | 83 | Puerto Rico | 101 | 793 | 3,1% | 3,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 84 | Cyprus | 738 | -100,0% | -4,6% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 101 | 85 | Guatemala | 21 | 623 | 5,1% | 1,3% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 86 | Martinique | 542 | -100,0% | -23,3% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 82 | 87 | Liechtenstein | 64 | 505 | 6,0% | 5,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 84 | 88 | Monaco | 63 | 495 | 2,0% | 2,9% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 85 | 89 | Trinidad & Tobago | 62 | 493 | -8,0% | -8,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 90 | Honduras | 461 | -100,0% | -25,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 83 | 91 | Moldova | 63 | 421 | 7,0% | -18,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 92 | Guyana | 397 | -100,0% | -3,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 88 | 93 | Montenegro | 47 | 372 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 86 | 94 | Iran | 52 | 344 | 4,1% | 5,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 89 | 95 | Angola | 41 | 325 | 10,0% | 10,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 105 | 96 | Ivory Cost | 10 | 301 | 26,2% | 45,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 96 | 97 | Thailand | 31 | 291 | -4,5% | -7,2% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 94 | 98 | Brunei | 32 | 287 | 3,5% | 14,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 91 | 99 | Ghana | 33 | 267 | 13,0% | 13,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 92 | 100 | S Marino | 33 | 263 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 90 | 101 | Madagascar | 39 | 258 | 5,5% | 6,8% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 93 | 102 | El Salvador | 32 | 257 | 7,0% | 7,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 97 | 103 | New Caledonia | 29 | 249 | 0,0% | 7,8% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 95 | 104 | Zambia | 31 | 249 | -5,0% | -5,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 99 | 105 | Kenya | 27 | 213 | 18,1% | 18,1% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 98 | 106 | Jordan | 27 | 212 | 23,7% | 23,9% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 100 | 107 | Senegal | 25 | 204 | 19,4% | 19,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 103 | 108 | Mauritius | 17 | 191 | 21,9% | 14,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 109 | Jamaica | 146 | -100,0% | -3,7% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 102 | 110 | Uzbekistan | 20 | 143 | -10,0% | -10,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 104 | 111 | Yemen | 13 | 75 | 18,1% | 6,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 106 | 112 | Cambodia | 7 | 48 | 40,8% | 51,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 113 | Laos | 44 | -100,0% | -12,8% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 107 | 114 | Malawi | 5 | 40 | 25,5% | 25,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 108 | 115 | Venezuela | 3 | 9 | 50,0% | 12,5% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 109 | 116 | Sri Lanka | 1 | 8 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | 0,0% | 0,0% |
| 117 | Mozambique | - | -100,0% | -100,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% | ||
| 110 | 117 | Syria | - | - | -100,0% | -100,0% | 0,0% | 0,0% |
