Russian Vehicle Market sales skyrocketed in 2024. Pushed by a better than expected economic trend, new light vehicles sales in October have been 161,864 (+106%) with YTD figures at 1,071 million (+55.5%).
Market Trend and Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2024, citing surging military spending as a buffer against economic downturns caused by sanctions. According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report published on April 16, Russia’s economy is now expected to grow by 3.2% this year, up from the 2.6% forecast in January. The Kremlin has allocated 10.8 trillion rubles ($115 billion) for defense spending, further anchoring the economy in a wartime footing as the Ukraine conflict continues indefinitely.
While GDP growth appears robust, challenges such as declining export revenues, labor shortages, and technological constraints due to sanctions raise concerns about long-term stability. Inflation poses a significant risk, and ending the war could trigger severe economic repercussions.
Despite the risks associated with Russia’s economic outlook, new light vehicles sales in October skyrocketed compared to the prior year, totaling 161,864 units (+106). YTD figures at 1,071 million grew 55.5%.
Looking at cumulative data up to October 2024 brand-wise, Lada dominated with 352,520 sales (+32.9%).
In second place the Chinese Haval with 234,472 (+151.8%) while third is Gaz -up 5 spots- with 108,961 (+299.8%).
Chery -down 1 spot- followed in fourth with with 106,243 (+18.5%) while Chevrolet -down 1 spot- ranked in fifth with 100,382 (+37.3%). In sixth place Geely down 1 spot- with 58,386 sales (-2.3%) with a wide margin over the followers. UAZ -down 1 spot- ranked in 7th and sold 34,769 vehicles (+36.9%), followed by Changan -up 1 spot- 21,603 (+90.7%) and Sollers -up 2 spots- 16,075 (+74%%).
Closing the Top 10, EXEED -down 3 spots- ranked in 10th with 15,862 sales (-44.2%).
Looking at the best selling models, the leader was the Lada Granta with sales down 1% followed by the Lada Vesta (+185.3%) and the Chevrolet Niva (+37.3%).
Medium-Term Market Trend
Russian automotive industry grew up at an all-time record of 2.92 million units in 2013, and it was among the top 10 in the World.
However, the market was severely hit by Crimea invasion-related sanctions and since 2014 dropped down losing over half of the volume in only three years landing at 1.42 million units in 2016 when the fall ended, to start a progressive recovery to near 1.8 million in the 2019.
The pandemic effects in 2020 reduce sales volume in the range of 1.5 million, but when Russia invaded Ukraine, the 24th of February 2022, the cost to the industry was heavy. In fact, the market lost 58.8% in volume, reaching a total of 686,497 sales. The Vehicle Market in 2023 registered a total of 854,231 sales being up by 24.4%
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for All Brands, Top 10 Manufacturers Group and Top 10 Models.
