German Car Passenger Market seems to be contracting in 2024. After posting signs of recovery during the previous months, sales in November at 228,171 dropped 1.4% in year-on-year volume. YTD figures stood at 2,40 million (-0.8%). BMW surpassed Mercedes and ranked 2nd, overtaking Audi who dropped out of the podium into 4th.
Market Trend and Outlook
Following the last year recession, economic activity in Germany is expected to stagnate in 2024. Domestic demand is set to pick up slowly in 2024 and 2025, as real wage growth resumes. However, investment is projected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels, constrained by continued high financing costs. Exports are forecast to remain sluggish in 2024 and slowly recover in 2025.
Driven by domestic demand, GDP growth is expected to increase moderately in 2025. Fiscal consolidation continues with the government deficit and the debt-to-GDP ratio gradually decreasing, benefitting from the phase-out of energy support measures.
Economic stagnation has impacted also the German passenger car market, leading to fluctuations throughout the first half of the year.
Despite previously showing signs of recovery, in November 2024 sales fell again, totaling 228,171 units (-1.4%). YTD figures reached 2,40 million (-0.8%).
Looking at cumulative data up to November 2024 brand-wise, Volkswagen sold the most cars at 443,168 (+3.9%), followed by BMW -up 2 spots- at 211,661 (+1.1%) in front of Mercedes at 197,718 (-8.5%) and Audi -down 2 spots- with 191,772 sales (-18.3%).
Skoda ranked in 5th position with 191,203 sales (+24%), followed by Opel at 135,462 sales (+5%), Seat -up 2 spots- at 97,081 (+24%) and Hyundai -down 1 spot- with 87,131 new registrations (-8.9%)
Toyota gained 2 spots and ranked in 9th position with 81,406 sales (+26.8%), followed by Ford -down 2 spots- closing the top 10 with 64,883 new registrations (-25.3%).
Looking at specific models the Volkswagen Golf was still the best seller while growing 27.4% in year-on-year sales, followed by the Volkswagen T-Roc, up 9.5% from the previous year.
Medium-Term Market Trend
The German car market is the largest in Europe and has had many ups and downs in the past decade. Starting from 2010 to 2013 the German market remained between 2.6 million ant 2.8 million, with year-on-year variations not exceeding 7% in both directions. In 2014 started a 4 year uptrend that brought all-time highs for 3 years in a row, reaching a maximum in 2017 at 3.51 million. Between 2018 and 2019 the market grew even higher reaching the 3.6 million mark in 2019.
The arrival of the pandemic in 2020 caused big problems in European economies and the German car market felt the consequences, falling 19% back under the 3 million level.
After the pandemic the downtrend continued, with the market falling 10% in 2021 and staying relatively flat in 2022 (+1.0%). A combination of factors were behind the industry struggle: the disruption in the global supply chain caused by a lack of raw materials, in particular for the production of microchips and Governments push towards Evs, an expensive alternative for low income consumers.
This unfavorable economic environment continued throughout 2023 even though in 2023 sales increased at 2.83 million (+7.4%).
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group and top 10 Models.
