China: car industry recover in February ’12 was not enough!

January has been influenced by the start of Chinese calendar year with few working days. However after February, the market trend is clear and is in line with focus2move Research Team forecast for a full year 2012 volume at 18.6-18.8 million, sharply below original forecast released by Manufacturers and JD Power China.

Market is now suffering for a reduced demand, with lower showroom traffic due to increased cost of car ownership (mainly as effect of petrol price increase) and rising car prices. The absence of Government incentives and lower discount offered by OEMs has further increased the transaction price compared with last year. The increased limit to car circulation in main Metropolitan areas is also suggesting a more reflecting purchase process.

While market is flatting, additional production is available, due to the expanding programs for OEMs already in the market (Volkswagen group, market leader, in working on opening its 13th Chinese plant) or new programs for who was not locally producing (Jaguar Land Rover just announced the agreement for building a new plant). All OEMs plan are based on a market forecast at 25 million in the 2015, a level we consider really optimistic.

Government started to support local producers. In February the Beijing announced a massive purchase of vehicles, reserved to Chinese makes. Other similar initiatives are under investigation. In March it was announced a tax reduced rate for vehicles meeting the 3rd stage of Chinese fuel consumption limit, in line with national plan to save energy and reduce CO2 emissions. The effect of this favorable tax rate could be reflected in an increased small car demand and could have a 0.5-1.0 million volume increase effect over full year 2012 volume. But we prefer to wait for increasing our yearly forecast.

In February, Car Passengers grew by 35% with a cumulate volume flat on previous year. The market continues to be dominated by importers, with the first 8 Top positions occupied by them. Market leader, Volkswagen is further increasing its gap over the second. Ytd 2012 it is at 14.0 market share while the 2011 was closed at 13.6.

Nissan started very fast, gaining the 2nd place at 6.6 (6.4 full year 2011) surpassing Toyota, now 3rd at 6.1 or 0.4 down on last year and now risking the podium place under the Hyundai and Buick attack (respectively 4th at 6.0 and 5th at 5.9).

Below the Top Selling Brand market share in the last 5 months:

Car Passengers

Market Share

Rank

Brand

Oct

Nov

Dec

Gen

Feb

Ytd Feb

1

Volkswagen

14,0%

13,0%

12,7%

14,1%

13,9%

14,0%

2

Nissan

6,6%

6,2%

6,4%

6,6%

6,7%

6,6%

3

Toyota

7,2%

7,2%

7,3%

5,2%

7,0%

6,1%

4

Hyundai

5,5%

5,6%

5,3%

6,2%

5,7%

6,0%

5

Buick

5,0%

5,0%

2,8%

6,9%

4,9%

5,9%

6

Chevrolet

4,7%

4,7%

3,8%

5,5%

5,1%

5,3%

7

Honda

4,4%

4,6%

6,0%

3,6%

3,9%

3,7%

8

Kia

3,9%

4,0%

3,8%

3,6%

3,4%

3,5%

9

Chery

4,4%

4,0%

4,4%

3,2%

3,6%

3,4%

10

BYD

2,9%

3,1%

4,2%

2,9%

3,8%

3,4%

11

Great Wall

2,9%

3,3%

3,4%

2,5%

3,2%

2,9%

12

Audi

2,6%

2,5%

2,2%

2,7%

2,7%

2,7%

13

Suzuki

1,9%

2,1%

2,1%

2,5%

2,4%

2,4%

14

Ford

2,4%

2,5%

2,5%

1,8%

2,0%

1,9%

15

FAW

1,9%

2,1%

1,5%

1,9%

1,8%

1,9%

16

BMW

1,8%

1,7%

1,7%

1,9%

1,8%

1,8%

17

Dongfeng

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

18

Skoda

1,5%

1,4%

1,4%

1,8%

1,7%

1,8%

19

Chana

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

1,5%

1,8%

1,7%

20

Peugeot

0,0%

0,0%

0,0%

1,7%

1,6%

1,6%

21

Citroen

1,7%

1,7%

1,8%

1,6%

1,5%

1,6%

22

Mazda

1,6%

1,8%

1,5%

1,4%

1,4%

1,4%

23

JAC

1,6%

1,3%

1,0%

1,4%

1,3%

1,4%

 

Others

26,6%

27,0%

28,4%

21,9%

21,2%

21,5%

In February Light Commercial Vehicle market was only 12% up, with a cumulate at 10% down. Wuling continues to increase it leadership and Year to Date 2012 is at 28.0 market share or 3.5 up on full year 2011. The 2nd is Chana, at 13.7 (0.6 up on 2011) and 3rd is Dongfeng at 11.1 (0.6 down on FY 2011).

Below the Top Selling Brand market share in the last 5 months:

Light Commercial

Market Share

Rank

Brand

Oct

Nov

Dec

Gen

Feb

Ytd Feb

1

Wuling

27,1%

26,1%

24,2%

29,6%

26,6%

28,0%

2

Chana

9,1%

13,0%

14,5%

15,3%

12,4%

13,7%

3

Dongfeng

11,1%

12,2%

12,9%

12,9%

9,7%

11,1%

4

Foton

10,4%

9,3%

9,6%

6,9%

13,0%

10,3%

5

Jimbei

8,4%

7,5%

5,5%

6,3%

4,4%

5,3%

6

JAC

4,2%

3,4%

2,7%

3,3%

5,0%

4,2%

7

FAW

2,6%

3,2%

3,3%

2,4%

3,4%

2,9%

8

Great Wall

2,5%

2,7%

2,4%

2,1%

2,9%

2,5%

9

JMC

2,3%

2,0%

2,7%

2,2%

2,8%

2,5%

10

Hafei

1,8%

1,7%

1,7%

1,4%

2,0%

1,7%

11

Yuejin

1,3%

1,2%

1,3%

1,5%

1,8%

1,7%

 

Others

20,3%

18,8%

20,6%

17,8%

17,8%

17,8%

(104)

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