Egyptian Vehicle Market recovering in 2024. Sales in September totaled 7,937 new registrations (+11%). After closing H1 negatively, YTD figures grew 9.1% and stood at 57,154 (-9.1%).
Market Trend and Outlook
Egypt’s long-standing challenges have intersected with multiple global shocks causing a foreign exchange crisis, historic inflation, and pressures to worsen the already-stretched fiscal and external accounts.
While triggered by the global poly-crisis, the rising macroeconomic imbalances in Egypt reflect pre-existing domestic challenges, including the sluggish non-oil exports and FDI, constrained private sector activity and job-creation (notably for youth and women), and the elevated and rising government debt. Below-potential revenue mobilization further limits the fiscal space required to advance human and physical capital for the Egyptian population which exceeds 105 million, almost 30 percent of whom are below the national poverty line.
Egyptian authorities have been undertaking a series of policy adjustments in response to the concurrent shocks. These include raising key policy rates, allowing the exchange rate to depreciate substantially since March 2022 to clear foreign exchange market distortions, and introducing social mitigation measures (including increases to pensions, food subsidies, and expansion in the coverage and allocations of the cash transfer programs) to shield the vulnerable partially.
The effects of skyrocketing inflation and interest rates combined with falling pro capita income hit the automotive industry hugely in recent years. The market, one of the largest in Africa a few years ago, is dropping vertically.
In September 2024 the domestic vehicles market reached 7,937 sales (+11%). YTD figures reached 57,154 (-9.1%)
Looking at cumulative data up to September brand-wise, Nissan secured first position with 7,796 sales (-16.9%), followed by Chery at 7,116 (-2.3%) and Toyota at 4,795 (-13.5%).
Further down the rankings, MG ranked 4th with 4,538 cumulative new registrations (-16.7%), while Chevrolet closed the top 5 with 4,458 (-0.1%)
Looking at specific models the Nissan Sunny was still the best seller despite dropping by 17.7% in year-on-year volume, followed by the Chevrolet TFR down 0.7% in sales.
Medium-Term Market Trend
Egyptian vehicle sales moved up and down in the past decade. From 2011 to 2013, despite the yearly changes in trend, overall sales fell from 244,328 in 2010 to 207,405 in 2013, with 2011 reporting a 26.7% loss and 2012 a 19.7% growth.
In 2014 the market increased by 34.9% up to the current all-time high of 279,779 sales, while in 2015 started a 3 year loss that moved sales to 129,254 by the ed of 2017. In 2018 the market rebounded 41.5% to fall back down in the following year, ending 2019 at 163,383.
Unlike in most countries of the world, the arrival of the pandemic in 2020 caused the Egyptian market to increase by 34.5% reaching 219,687.
The momentum continued into the following year with 2021 closing at 266,348. 2022 interrupted this growth in the Egyptian vehicles market with sales down 32.6% from the prior year at 186,819. A combination of factors are behind the current industry struggle: mainly the disruption in the global supply chain caused by a lack of raw materials, in particular for the production of microchips.
In 2023 the domestic vehicles market declined to only 64.882 sales (-63.8%) with December scoring the 25th year-on-year consecutive monthly decline.
