Egypt 2023. Vehicle Market Lost 84% In Last 24 Months

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The 2023 Land Rover Defender 130
The 2023 Land Rover Defender 130

Egyptian Vehicle Market was hugely negative in 2023. Total sales reached 64,822 (-63.8%) with a record of 25 declining months. The market leader was Nissan (-55.9%).

Market Trend and Outlook

Egypt’s long-standing challenges have intersected with multiple global shocks causing a foreign exchange crisis, historic inflation, and pressures to worsen the already-stretched fiscal and external accounts.

While triggered by the global poly-crisis, the rising macroeconomic imbalances in Egypt reflect pre-existing domestic challenges, including the sluggish non-oil exports and FDI, constrained private sector activity and job-creation (notably for youth and women), as well as the elevated and rising government debt. Below-potential revenue mobilization is further limiting the fiscal space required to advance human and physical capital for the Egyptian population which exceeds 105 million, almost 30 percent of whom are below the national poverty line.

In response to the concurrent shocks, Egyptian authorities have been undertaking a series of policy adjustments. These include raising key policy rates, allowing the exchange rate to depreciate substantially since March 2022 to clear foreign exchange market distortions, and introducing social mitigation measures (including increases to pensions, food subsidies and expansion in the coverage and allocations of the cash transfer programs) to partially shield the vulnerable.

The effects of skyrocketing inflation and interest rate combined with fallin pro capita income hit hugely the automotive industry in the most recent years and the market, one of largest in Africa few years ago, is falling down vertically.

In the 2023 the domestic vehicles market declined to only 64.882 sales (-63.8%) with December scoring the 25th year on year consecutive monthly decline.

Looking at cumulative data up to December 2023 brand-wise, Nissan rises 1 spot into first position with 10,590 sales (-55.9%), followed by Chevrolet at 9,844 (-60.3%) and Chery with 7,819 (-58.7%).

Further down the rankings Renault reports the best performance in the top 10, falling merely 8.4% with 4,725 cumulative new registrations.

Looking at specific models the Nissan Sunny becomes the new best seller despite losing 53.3% in year-on-year volume, followed by the Chevrolet TFR down 66.9% in sales but down 1 spot in the rankings.

Medium-Term Market Trend

Egyptian vehicle sales moved up and down in the past decade. From 2011 to 2013, despite the yearly changes in trend, overall sales fell from 244,328 in 2010 to 207,405 in 2013, with 2011 reporting a 26.7% loss and 2012 a 19.7% growth.

In 2014 the market increased by 34.9% up to the current all-time high of 279,779 sales, while in 2015 started a 3 year loss that moved sales to 129,254 by the ed of 2017. In 2018 the market rebounded 41.5% to fall back down in the following year, ending 2019 at 163,383.

Unlike in most countries of the world, the arrival of the pandemic in 2020 caused the Egyptian market to increase by 34.5% reaching 219,687.

The momentum continued into the following year with 2021 closing at 266,348. 2022 interrupted this growth in the Egyptian vehicles market with sales down 32.6% from the prior year at 186,819. A combination of factors are behind the current industry struggle: mainly the disruption in the global supply chain caused by a lack of raw materials, in particular for the production of microchips.