India. Kia up in 9th place in market projected below 3 million units

Indian Autos Market

Indian Autos Market in the 2019 is falling down losing 12.4% and projecting the full year again below the 3 million units, hit by deceleration of domestic economy, increased fuel price, higher interest rate. While Maruti control almost 50% of the market, the new player, Kia, already gained a place among the Top 10.

Economic Environment

Indian economic growth likely accelerated in Q2 FY 2019, which ran from July to September, after slowing in Q1, as indicated by a faster increase in private sector activity in Q2 than in Q1. However, the acceleration was probably modest, given consumer confidence dropped to a multi-year low in September. Moreover, although the Reserve Bank of India has slashed interest rates in recent months, bank lending growth slowed in September to the weakest pace since October 2017, which, coupled with the ongoing credit crunch among non-bank financial lenders, suggests consumers are not fully benefiting from lower interest rates.

The economy should slow in FY 2019, in part due to frugal lending to consumers and businesses, despite lower interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of India. Tense relations with Pakistan and a limp global economy are downside risks. More positively, however, expansionary fiscal policy should support growth.

Market Trend

Indian vehicles market is the 5th largest in the World and is very close to outpace Germany to gain the fourth.

Following five years of continuous vigorous growth, in the 2018 the Indian car passenger market hit the last all time record with 3.38 million sales, despite the introduction of the new National Automotive Plan, in mid year, had blocked the growth.

The industry was also impacted by the fall Rupee value in the international market, by the interest rates increase in interest and by fuel price increase. Consequently, since the last months of the 2018 a new trend – negative this time – is in place and the market is declining month after month.

In the 2019 market is projected back below the 3 million units.

Indeed Year to Date November figures were 2.73 million, down 12.4%.

The local manufacturer Maruti, holds over 50% of market just having progressively increased the quota during the last decade with a record of 51% hit in the 2018. In the 2019 the year to date share is just below 50% well ahead of the followers, three manufacturers producing locally, the Korean Hyundai, second, and the Indian Mahindra and Tata.

However, the key fact of the 2019 is the immediate success of the last brand arrived in the market, Kia, already ranking within the Top 10.

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Rank 2019Rank 2018BrandSales YTD 2019Sales November'+/- YTD 2019Share YTD 2019Share November

Rank 2019Rank 2018 Sales YTD 2019Sales November'+/- YTD 2019Share YTD 2019Share November
55Honda Motor126.3296.459-21,9%4,6%2,4%
66Toyota Group118.6108.312-11,7%4,3%3,1%
77Renault Nissan Alliance96.94612.337-15,2%3,6%4,6%
88Ford Group70.6155.392-23,2%2,6%2,0%
99Volkswagen Group48.9504.695-9,8%1,8%1,8%
1016SAIC Motor12.9093.2390,5%1,2%

Rank 2019Rank 2018ModelSales YTD 2019Sales November'+/- YTD 2019'+/- November
12Maruti Alto192.59815.086-16,8%-19,1%
21Maruti Dzire183.61817.659-25,9%-16,1%
33Maruti Swift177.15219.314-16,4%-13,0%
44Maruti Baleno165.39818.047-16,9%-3,2%
55Maruti Wagon R145.18614.650-2,9%29,5%
67Hyundai i20124.81910.446-3,4%-1,0%
76Maruti Vitara113.43612.033-22,2%-16,3%
814Maruti Eeco106.47110.16240,0%35,8%
98Hyundai Grand i1095.09510.186-22,6%10,1%
109Hyundai Creta93.0236.684-17,9%-30,9%