Italy November. Sales down 5.5% while economy is stagnating

Alfa_Romeo-Stelvio_Quadrifoglio-2018

Italian Autos Market down 5.5% in November, still under the WLTP introduction effect, with a negative annual gain (-2.7%). The year is estimated to end at 1.922.700 units. Outstanding performances were scored by the Jeep Compass and the Volkswagen T-Roc.

Economic Environment

The economy stagnated in the third quarter, owing to muted contributions from both domestic and external demand. Survey-based indicators point to protracted economic weaknesses in the fourth quarter as tensions between the government and the European Commission (EC) escalate.

On 13 November, the government returned the budget to the EC essentially unchanged after the Commission demanded spending growth was moderated and the target-deficit narrowed substantially, thus significantly increasing the likelihood that the EC will launch an infringement procedure against the country for breaching EU budgetary rules.

Market Trend

Italian vehicles market fell down in the period 2008-2011 hitting a thirty years record low, before starting to recover. In the last 5 years car passenger’s volume grew up from 1.4 million in the 2012 to 1.8 million in the 2016 and finally at 1.964.000 in the 2017, when the total light vehicles figures hit the 2.14 million units.

The market long recovery is ended in the 2018, considering the car park density in Italy is the highest in Europe and within the top 5 worldwide.

Data released by the Italian Minister of Transportation reported the Q1 ended at 577.780 sales (-0.5%), the Q2 at 529.081 (-4.2%) and the Q3 at 370.598 (-6.1%). The deadline of September 1st for introduction of WLTP emission standard, moved up and down the registrations data in single Q3 months, but not as in others EU countries. In fact, sales were reported in July at 153.307  (+5.5%), in August at 92.269 (+10.7%) and finally September at 125.022 (-25.1%), unchanging the base trend, moderately negative.

In October sales were 147.753 (-6.4%) still under the WLTP effect and in November at 148.024 (-5.5%). The year to date figures were at 1.793.525 (-2.7%) and full year projection at 1.922.700 units.

Competitive Arena

The market has been always heavily conditioned by the strategy of Fiat Group, now FCA, which in the ’80 and ’90 had firmly stopped the start up of foreign industrial facilities, when Japanese brands were looking for South European location to produce. Then, in more recent years, FCA has almost left the country, with just 800.000 vehicles produced locally (near the half for export).

As far as sales, FCA has controlled always a near 30% of share, also with dumping strategies. In the last months a surprising strategy is in place and thanks to the success of Jeep models, FCA is shifting sales from Fiat brand to Jeep, a more profitable “premium” brand.

That’s the reason of the decline of Fiat, still market leader, of course, but with a share well below the 20% usually considered the lower limit in Turin HQs. Indeed, year to date, Fiat sold 303.940 cars (-19.9%) with 17% of market share.

In second place there is Volkswagen with 150.941 sales (+11.8%) followed by Ford, which in September was back on the podium with 121.658 (-3.2%) and Renault with 116.534 (-6.7%).

In fifth place Peugeot, at the best place in years, with 101.438 (+4.7%) followed by Opel with 89.379 (-5.8%), Toyota with 82.535 (+3.6%), Citroen with 77.914 (+6.7%), Jeep, boomed 71.8% and up 7 spots,with 77.760 units  and in 10th place Audi with 58.101 (-9%).

In 18th place Alfa Romeo, with 41.155 sales, down 2.9%, despite the last year launch of Stelvio and Giulia, confirming the absolute unability of FCA to re-launch the brand, any day closer to be sold at a German player.

As far as best selling models, the Fiat Panda is the leader since 7 years, having lost the leadership in favor of Renault Clio in this August, for one-shot reasons related to WLTP registrations. Year to date Panda sales have been 112.632 (-18.6%) and is followed by the Renault Clio, best imported model, with 48.227 (-3.1%) the Fiat 500 X with 47.028 (+10.5%), the Lancia Ypsilon with 44.192 (-22.7%) and the Citroen C3 with 38.874 (-14.4%).

To see the full best-selling models ranking report for Italy, please refer to the specific article here.

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP)

The European Union has therefore developed a new test, called the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).

The WLTP driving cycle is a test defined by the European Union defining new standard for vehicles with focus on CO2 emission and fuel consumptions. The test is divided into four parts with different average speeds: low, medium, high and extra high. Each part contains a variety of driving phases, stops, acceleration and braking phases.

For a certain car type, each powertrain configuration is tested with WLTP for the car’s lightest (most economical) and heaviest (least economical) version. WLTP was developed with the aim of being used as a global test cycle across different world regions, so pollutant and CO2 emissions as well as fuel consumption values would be comparable worldwide. However, while the WLTP has a common global ‘core’, the European Union and other regions will apply the test in different ways depending on their road traffic laws and needs.

WLTP will apply to all new car registrations from September 2018 when vehicles below the minimum index would not be registered within the European Union territory.

Research, Consulting, Data & Forecast

F2M covers intensively this market with several products developed to help any investigation required. Market Researches in PDF are immediately available for download with study on the market since 2005 and with forecast up to the 2025. AutoData in EXCEL are immediately downloadable with annual sales volume, split by month, for all brands and all models distributed in the market. This year data are released year to date, but you will receive a monthly update until the year-end.  See details within Italy Corner Store!

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