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Flash Reports

Italy November. Sales down 5.5% while economy is stagnating

Italian Autos Market Alfa_Romeo-Stelvio_Quadrifoglio-2018

Italian Autos Market down 5.5% in November, still under the WLTP introduction effect, with a negative annual gain (-2.7%). The year is estimated to end at 1.922.700 units. Outstanding performances were scored by the Jeep Compass and the Volkswagen T-Roc.

Economic Environment

The economy stagnated in the third quarter, owing to muted contributions from both domestic and external demand. Survey-based indicators point to protracted economic weaknesses in the fourth quarter as tensions between the government and the European Commission (EC) escalate.

On 13 November, the government returned the budget to the EC essentially unchanged after the Commission demanded spending growth was moderated and the target-deficit narrowed substantially, thus significantly increasing the likelihood that the EC will launch an infringement procedure against the country for breaching EU budgetary rules.

Market Trend

Italian vehicles market fell down in the period 2008-2011 hitting a thirty years record low, before starting to recover. In the last 5 years car passenger’s volume grew up from 1.4 million in the 2012 to 1.8 million in the 2016 and finally at 1.964.000 in the 2017, when the total light vehicles figures hit the 2.14 million units.

The market long recovery is ended in the 2018, considering the car park density in Italy is the highest in Europe and within the top 5 worldwide.

Data released by the Italian Minister of Transportation reported the Q1 ended at 577.780 sales (-0.5%), the Q2 at 529.081 (-4.2%) and the Q3 at 370.598 (-6.1%). The deadline of September 1st for introduction of WLTP emission standard, moved up and down the registrations data in single Q3 months, but not as in others EU countries. In fact, sales were reported in July at 153.307  (+5.5%), in August at 92.269 (+10.7%) and finally September at 125.022 (-25.1%), unchanging the base trend, moderately negative.

In October sales were 147.753 (-6.4%) still under the WLTP effect and in November at 148.024 (-5.5%). The year to date figures were at 1.793.525 (-2.7%) and full year projection at 1.922.700 units.

Market Sales November ‘+/- Nov Sales YTD 2018 ‘+/- YTD 2018 Sales 2018 est.
Car 148.024 -5,5% 1.793.525 -2,7% 1.922.700

Competitive Arena

The market has been always heavily conditioned by the strategy of Fiat Group, now FCA, which in the ’80 and ’90 had firmly stopped the start up of foreign industrial facilities, when Japanese brands were looking for South European location to produce. Then, in more recent years, FCA has almost left the country, with just 800.000 vehicles produced locally (near the half for export).

As far as sales, FCA has controlled always a near 30% of share, also with dumping strategies. In the last months a surprising strategy is in place and thanks to the success of Jeep models, FCA is shifting sales from Fiat brand to Jeep, a more profitable “premium” brand.

That’s the reason of the decline of Fiat, still market leader, of course, but with a share well below the 20% usually considered the lower limit in Turin HQs. Indeed, year to date, Fiat sold 303.940 cars (-19.9%) with 17% of market share.

In second place there is Volkswagen with 150.941 sales (+11.8%) followed by Ford, which in September was back on the podium with 121.658 (-3.2%) and Renault with 116.534 (-6.7%).

In fifth place Peugeot, at the best place in years, with 101.438 (+4.7%) followed by Opel with 89.379 (-5.8%), Toyota with 82.535 (+3.6%), Citroen with 77.914 (+6.7%), Jeep, boomed 71.8% and up 7 spots,with 77.760 units  and in 10th place Audi with 58.101 (-9%).

In 18th place Alfa Romeo, with 41.155 sales, down 2.9%, despite the last year launch of Stelvio and Giulia, confirming the absolute unability of FCA to re-launch the brand, any day closer to be sold at a German player.

As far as best selling models, the Fiat Panda is the leader since 7 years, having lost the leadership in favor of Renault Clio in this August, for one-shot reasons related to WLTP registrations. Year to date Panda sales have been 112.632 (-18.6%) and is followed by the Renault Clio, best imported model, with 48.227 (-3.1%) the Fiat 500 X with 47.028 (+10.5%), the Lancia Ypsilon with 44.192 (-22.7%) and the Citroen C3 with 38.874 (-14.4%).

To see the full best-selling models ranking report for Italy, please refer to the specific article here.

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP)

The European Union has therefore developed a new test, called the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP).

The WLTP driving cycle is a test defined by the European Union defining new standard for vehicles with focus on CO2 emission and fuel consumptions. The test is divided into four parts with different average speeds: low, medium, high and extra high. Each part contains a variety of driving phases, stops, acceleration and braking phases.

For a certain car type, each powertrain configuration is tested with WLTP for the car’s lightest (most economical) and heaviest (least economical) version. WLTP was developed with the aim of being used as a global test cycle across different world regions, so pollutant and CO2 emissions as well as fuel consumption values would be comparable worldwide. However, while the WLTP has a common global ‘core’, the European Union and other regions will apply the test in different ways depending on their road traffic laws and needs.

WLTP will apply to all new car registrations from September 2018 when vehicles below the minimum index would not be registered within the European Union territory.

Research, Consulting, Data & Forecast

F2M covers intensively this market with several products developed to help any investigation required. Market Researches in PDF are immediately available for download with study on the market since 2005 and with forecast up to the 2025. AutoData in EXCEL are immediately downloadable with annual sales volume, split by month, for all brands and all models distributed in the market. This year data are released year to date, but you will receive a monthly update until the year-end.  See details within Italy Corner Store!

Rank 2018 Rank 2017 Brand Sales November ‘+/- Nov Sales YTD 2018 ‘+/- YTD 2018 Share YTD 2018
1 1 Fiat 22.064 -13,6% 303.940 -19,9% 17,0%
2 2 Volkswagen 13.323 3,6% 150.941 11,8% 8,4%
3 3 Ford 9.213 -0,1% 121.658 -3,2% 6,8%
4 4 Renault 8.109 -37,9% 116.534 -6,7% 6,5%
5 5 Peugeot 8.706 6,3% 101.438 4,7% 5,7%
6 6 Opel 7.469 7,1% 89.379 -5,8% 5,0%
7 7 Toyota 7.822 7,2% 82.535 3,6% 4,6%
8 8 Citroen 5.929 -0,3% 77.914 6,7% 4,3%
9 16 Jeep 7.066 2,4% 77.760 71,8% 4,3%
10 9 Audi 4.546 -16,3% 58.101 -9,0% 3,2%
11 15 Dacia 6.319 -13,5% 56.318 4,9% 3,1%
12 10 Mercedes 5.262 -6,9% 56.302 -7,2% 3,1%
13 13 BMW 4.469 -12,8% 53.403 -5,1% 3,0%
14 11 Nissan 3.285 -5,6% 51.771 -11,3% 2,9%
15 14 Hyundai 4.654 -16,0% 49.916 -7,6% 2,8%
16 17 Kia 3.402 12,7% 45.083 1,8% 2,5%
17 12 Lancia 4.463 14,3% 44.188 -22,7% 2,5%
18 18 Alfa Romeo 1.851 -52,3% 41.155 -2,9% 2,3%
19 19 Suzuki 3.200 16,6% 30.465 4,9% 1,7%
20 22 Skoda 2.081 13,3% 23.814 10,8% 1,3%
21 20 Smart 1.659 -12,0% 23.217 -7,4% 1,3%
22 21 Mini 2.077 -26,1% 19.432 -15,0% 1,1%
23 24 Seat 1.519 -6,0% 18.834 16,1% 1,1%
24 25 Volvo 2.006 22,1% 17.556 12,2% 1,0%
25 23 Land Rover 1.423 8,6% 16.582 -5,9% 0,9%
26 26 Mazda 902 13,9% 10.146 4,1% 0,6%
27 37 Abarth 950 9.390 1793,1% 0,5%
28 29 Jaguar 892 87,3% 8.704 75,1% 0,5%
29 27 Honda 728 -8,0% 8.313 -9,4% 0,5%
30 30 Mitsubishi 705 134,3% 5.442 56,6% 0,3%
31 28 Porsche 123 -65,8% 4.851 -5,0% 0,3%
32 31 Lexus 335 -55,9% 3.438 -0,9% 0,2%
33 32 Subaru 336 23,7% 3.150 13,8% 0,2%
34 33 Maserati 214 14,6% 2.602 -5,3% 0,1%
35 34 DS 201 40,4% 2.438 -4,2% 0,1%
36 35 SsangYong 219 31,0% 2.312 10,3% 0,1%
37 38 DR 183 581,8% 1.294 232,6% 0,1%
38 41 Mahindra 127 752,6% 875 236,5% 0,0%
39 36 Infiniti 14 -81,4% 533 -69,5% 0,0%
40 40 Tesla 34 -32,0% 409 42,0% 0,0%
41 39 Ferrari 14 76,2% 377 13,2% 0,0%
42 42 Lamborghini 14 366,7% 199 63,1% 0,0%
43 44 Lada 2 0,0% 53 65,6% 0,0%
44 45 Great Wall 46 4500,0% 0,0%
45 43 Chevrolet 7 -33,3% 44 2,3% 0,0%

Rank 2018 Rank 2017 Model Sales November ‘+/- Nov Sales YTD 2018 ‘+/- YTD 2018
1 1 Fiat Panda 12.366 14,8% 112.632 -18,6%
2 5 Renault Clio 3.714 3,6% 48.227 -3,1%
3 8 Fiat 500x 3.334 -6,9% 47.028 10,5%
4 2 Lancia Ypsilon 4.463 14,0% 44.192 -22,7%
5 6 Citroen C3 2.936 -19,4% 38.874 -14,4%
6 3 Fiat Tipo 1.638 -40,7% 38.728 -27,5%
7 13 Jeep Renegade 3.610 8,2% 38.449 10,2%
8 4 Fiat 500 2.498 -21,6% 38.269 -25,3%
9 10 Ford Fiesta 2.276 -30,3% 37.819 -2,3%
10 11 Volkswagen Polo 2.314 39,1% 37.718 -2,4%
11 14 Toyota Yaris 3.685 -1,8% 37.210 8,1%
12 79 Jeep Compass 3.093 85,3% 35.783 446,5%
13 9 Volkswagen Golf 2.987 -23,9% 33.572 -14,4%
14 7 Fiat 500L 1.128 -49,7% 32.672 -25,1%
15 15 Peugeot 208 2.656 1,1% 31.366 -8,5%
16 19 Volkswagen Tiguan 2.924 16,8% 28.671 4,6%
17 16 Nissan Qashqai 1.745 -12,0% 27.608 -6,0%
18 18 Renault Captur 2.075 -32,6% 26.804 -3,0%
19 21 Dacia Sandero 3.463 72,7% 26.803 2,3%
20 26 Ford Ecosport 2.227 33,1% 26.727 48,0%
21 22 Dacia Duster 2.587 35,7% 25.010 12,8%
22 30 Peugeot 3008 2.076 20,4% 23.007 46,9%
23 12 Fiat Punto 1.699 -30,4% 22.131 -37,8%
24 211 volkswagen T-Roc 1.607 665,2% 21.849 6364,2%
25 17 Opel Corsa 1.770 -14,8% 20.950 -24,9%
26 23 Peugeot 2008 1.934 9,3% 20.109 -7,9%
27 20 Opel Mokka 1.351 -16,9% 17.932 -34,1%
28 29 Toyota C-HR 1.692 51,2% 17.801 13,2%
29 48 Opel Karl 1.552 60,8% 17.517 73,1%
30 24 Alfa Romeo Giulietta 1.133 -19,2% 16.785 -15,1%

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