Italy. In the 2019, Fiat down at 15% share in a flat market (-1%)

December 5, 2019

Italian Autos Market keeps the stable trend and is projected to end the 2019 more or less in line with the previous year at 1.9 million. Indeed after 8 weak months, since September year-on-year data a positive and Year to Date November sales are down only 1%. Fiat continues to lose share and actually is at 15% with negative outlook for the next 18 months.

Economic Environment

Italian economy remained anemic in the third quarter, with GDP only just mustering an expansion for the fourth consecutive quarter. The external sector subtracted from growth, hit by headwinds blowing from Germany. In contrast, domestic demand timidly supported the expansion, although it was restrained by stifled credit extension, gloomy economic prospects, muted wage increases and some job shedding.

Indicators for October suggest a similar pattern at the outset of the fourth quarter: Consumer sentiment slid, business confidence was downbeat and the manufacturing PMI dipped further into contractionary terrain.

The economy is set to gain some strength next year, as domestic demand picks up and the industrial sector finds a way out of recession. That said, Italy will remain the Eurozone laggard, as waning investment activity and muted productivity growth weigh on the economy.

Market Trend

Following the deep lost during the 2008-2011 crisis, when market fell down from 2.4 up to 1.4 million units, the Italian vehicles market recovered in the period 2012-2017 reaching back the 1.96 million cars (plus LCVs to arrive at a total light vehicles market of 2.14 million).

Back at the physiological level, the market growth ended and a new phase, moderately declining, started in the 2018, when sales declined 2.6% at 1.9 million units.

According to data released by the Italian Minister of Transportation, in the 2019 the trend unchanged and the market continues to lose steam being projected to end the year few thousand units below the previous. Indeed, year to date November sales were 1.776.976, down 1%. However, after a declining first eight months, since September the market is year-on-year growing. In november sales were +1.7%.

In the competitive arena, the main fact is the collapse of Fiat. Indeed the Italian brand has progressively given up to the huge bulk of not-profitable sales and in the last years have lost market share. From a stable 20%+ share, in the 2019 the brand landed at 15% and absence of new models will cause a further decline in the next 18 months.

New brands have taken space in these years. Overall Dacia, at 4.3% of share in the 2019, Jeep, new leader among premium brands with 4.3% and Citroen, back at 4.7% after over 15 years.

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Rank 2019	Rank 2018	Brand	Sales YTD 2019	Sales November	'+/- YTD 2019	Share YTD 2019	Share November
1	1	Fiat	266.084	21.733	-12,7%	15,0%	14,4%
2	2	Volkswagen	165.382	14.022	9,3%	9,3%	9,3%
3	3	Ford	112.941	9.996	-7,5%	6,4%	6,6%
4	4	Renault	104.114	8.472	-10,4%	5,9%	5,6%
5	5	Peugeot	102.279	8.021	1,0%	5,8%	5,3%
6	6	Opel	92.761	5.534	3,3%	5,2%	3,7%
7	7	Toyota	83.946	7.642	1,2%	4,7%	5,1%
8	9	Citroen	80.999	6.296	4,4%	4,6%	4,2%
9	11	Dacia	77.219	5.884	37,5%	4,3%	3,9%
10	8	Jeep	75.695	5.943	-2,8%	4,3%	3,9%
11	10	Audi	59.445	5.431	2,4%	3,3%	3,6%
12	12	Mercedes	56.129	5.388	-1,4%	3,2%	3,6%
13	16	Lancia	54.816	4.320	24,0%	3,1%	2,9%
14	13	BMW	53.496	4.758	-0,1%	3,0%	3,2%
15	15	Hyundai	46.087	4.715	-7,9%	2,6%	3,1%
16	17	Kia	44.034	3.949	-2,4%	2,5%	2,6%
17	14	Nissan	40.282	2.893	-22,0%	2,3%	1,9%
18	19	Suzuki	34.117	2.395	11,8%	1,9%	1,6%
19	21	Smart	27.713	5.609	19,2%	1,6%	3,7%
21	23	Seat	24.789	2.189	31,3%	1,4%	1,5%
20	20	Skoda	24.727	2.089	4,3%	1,4%	1,4%
22	18	Alfa Romeo	23.801	2.037	-42,2%	1,3%	1,4%
23	22	Mini	20.281	2.066	4,3%	1,1%	1,4%
24	24	Volvo	19.648	2.142	12,1%	1,1%	1,4%
25	25	Land Rover	15.434	1.267	-5,6%	0,9%	0,8%
26	26	Mazda	11.797	1.443	16,0%	0,7%	1,0%
27	29	Honda	8.048	726	-3,4%	0,5%	0,5%
28	28	Jaguar	7.604	477	-12,7%	0,4%	0,3%
29	30	Mitsubishi	7.296	628	34,0%	0,4%	0,4%
30	27	Abarth	6.351	-	-32,4%	0,4%	0,0%
31	31	Porsche	6.255	575	28,5%	0,4%	0,4%
32	32	Lexus	5.124	424	48,8%	0,3%	0,3%
33	35	DS	3.979	473	63,1%	0,2%	0,3%
34	37	DR	3.594	183	177,7%	0,2%	0,1%
35	33	Subaru	2.375	303	-25,4%	0,1%	0,2%
36	36	SsangYong	2.183	135	-5,9%	0,1%	0,1%
37	40	Tesla	2.081	136	406,3%	0,1%	0,1%
38	34	Maserati	1.919	121	-26,8%	0,1%	0,1%
39	38	Mahindra	916	70	11,2%	0,1%	0,0%
40	41	Ferrari	477	22	24,9%	0,0%	0,0%
41	42	Lamborghini	304	19	52,0%	0,0%	0,0%
42	39	Infiniti	240	2	-55,1%	0,0%	0,0%
43	50	Great Wall	87	21	4250,0%	0,0%	0,0%
44	45	Aston Martin	49	-	88,5%	0,0%	0,0%
45	44	Chevrolet	41	1	-14,6%	0,0%	0,0%
46	43	Lada	37	-	-32,7%	0,0%	0,0%

Rank 2019	Rank 2018	Group	Sales YTD 2019	Sales November	'+/- YTD 2019	Share YTD 2019	Share November
1	1	F.C.A.	429.143	34.176	-10,6%	24,1%	22,7%
2	3	Volkswagen Group	280.902	24.325	9,3%	15,8%	16,1%
3	2	P.S.A.	280.018	20.324	3,3%	15,8%	13,5%
4	4	Renault Nissan Alliance	229.188	17.879	-0,4%	12,9%	11,9%
5	5	Ford Group	112.941	9.996	-7,5%	6,4%	6,6%
6	6	Hyundai-Kia	90.121	8.664	-5,3%	5,1%	5,8%
7	7	Toyota Group	89.070	8.066	3,1%	5,0%	5,4%
8	8	Mercedes Daimler	83.842	10.997	4,5%	4,7%	7,3%
9	9	BMW	73.777	6.824	1,0%	4,2%	4,5%
10	10	Suzuki	34.117	2.395	11,8%	1,9%	1,6%

Rank 2019	Rank 2018	Model	Sales YTD 2019	Sales November	'+/- YTD 2019	'+/- November
1	1	Fiat Panda	127.608	10724	11,2%	-13,3%
2	4	Lancia Ypsilon	54.821	4320	24,0%	-3,2%
3	3	Fiat 500x	39.762	3432	-15,5%	2,9%
4	21	Dacia Duster	39.710	3540	58,5%	36,8%
5	5	Citroen C3	39.249	3205	0,9%	9,2%
6	2	Renault Clio	39.027	2309	-19,2%	-37,8%
7	7	Jeep Renegade	38.931	2355	1,1%	-34,8%
8	23	volkswagen T-Roc	37.497	2476	71,3%	54,1%
9	11	Toyota Yaris	34.791	2885	-6,6%	-21,7%
10	8	Fiat 500	33.843	2409	-11,6%	-3,6%