Swedish Auto Market mirrors the economic recession in 2024. In November, new car passenger totaled 23,944 (-3.4%). YTD figures reached 230,311, dropping by 9.1%. Volvo and Mercedes outperformed other Top 10 Brands in year-on-year growth.
Market Trend and Outlook
The Sweden Government presented its Spring Budget on 15 April. The budget has been presented against the background of significantly falling inflation while the Swedish economy is in recession, with low GDP growth and rising unemployment.
The Swedish economy has been in recession since 2023 and is expected to remain there until 2025. GDP is expected to increase by 0.7 per cent in 2024 and 2.5 per cent in 2025.
Lower inflation and increasing wages are expected to successively improve the economic situation for households in 2024. A major contributing factor to the decreasing inflation is lower energy prices, where electricity prices in particular have fallen since late 2022. Fuel prices have also decreased with assistance from tax reductions and lowered reduction obligation.
Persistent comparatively weak demand in the economy is expected to continue to slow inflation in future. This opens up the possibility of interest rate cuts, which are expected to make household consumption and housing investment increase comparatively quickly in 2025. The economic outlook internationally is also expected to improve in 2025, which would benefit Swedish exports.
In the current negative economic environment, the automotive industry is experiencing a decline, despite the introduction of several new models this year.
In November new car passenger sales were 23,944 (-3.4%) while YTD figures stood at 230,311 (-9.1%)
Looking at the top manufacturers performance year to date, Volvo sold 40,965 cars (+18.2%) consolidating the leadership over all challengers.
In second place Volkswagen with 24,575 sales (-12%) and in third Toyota -up 1 spot- with 19,375 (-9.4%).
In fourth place there was Kia -down 1 spot- with 17,346 units sold (-21.7%) followed by Tesla with 14,980 new sales (-19.2%) and Mercedes -up 3 spots- with 13,719 sales (+11.3%).
In seventh place Audi -down 1 spot- with 12,741 units sold (-22%) ahead of Skoda with 11,954 (-4%), BMW -down 2 spots- with 11,412 (-19.8%) and in 10th place Peugeot with 8,894 (+26.7%).
Looking at the ranking of the best selling cars, widely reported in the dedicated post, the leader was the Volvo XC60 (+27.6%) followed by the Tesla Model Y (-22.9%) and the Volvo XC40 (-34.7%).
Medium-Trend Market Trend
The Swedish market has recorded an overall positive trend in the last years. Starting at 245k in 2010 it had a few years of growth reaching 300k in 2012. The upward trajectory was interrupted in 2013 with sales finishing at 290k, this halt didn’t last for long. In 2014 y/y car passenger sales began to increase for the following 4 years reaching a peak in 2017 at 409k registrations, close to double 2010 levels.
2018 and 2019 weren’t amazing years for the Swedish auto market with -13.5% and +0.5%, respectively, bringing sales down to 355k at the beginning of 2020. With the arrival of Covid , like in most European countries, sales dropped, falling under 300k registrations (-18%).
In 2021 demand for car passengers in Sweden showed signs of recovery reporting a +3%, with sales at 300k. Despite the rising sentiment in the previous year, 2022 showed signs of a market struggling to maintain high demand, mainly due to a push towards EVs and other global manufacturing factors. In fact, the year closed at 287,610 sales, a 4.4% decrease from the prior. The downfall continues into 2023, with the overall market down in double digits.
Although Europe is an important center for EV manufacturing, Germany in particular, the production costs haven’t been able to meet with the consumers willingness to pay, with the average cost of new BEV at euro 55,821. Lack of raw materials and elevated costs for microchips production also pose a threat for the Swedish car market, that is already having to confront higher prices and longer waiting times, pushing lower income consumers into the second hand market.
2023 closes with a total of 289,281 sales, up 0.6% from the previous year.
Tables with sales figures
In the tables below we report sales for all Brands, top 10 Manufacturers Group, and top 10 Models.
