Sweden. New “green policy” pushed the market down at worst in 5 years

Swedish Auto Market

Swedish Auto Market in the 2019 will score the lower level in the last five years despite since September the year-on-year figures are almost positive. Indeed, Year to Date October sales at 277.405 were down 9%. Volkswagen is consolidating the leadership with over 3 point of share ahead of Volvo while Kia, Seat and Tesla are the emerging brands.

Economic Environment

Swedish economy likely grew at a slightly faster quarter-on-quarter pace in the third quarter, after steady growth in the second quarter. Housing prices climbed in Q3 in both annual and quarter-on-quarter terms, boding well for private consumption and fixed investment growth, although prices remained below the peak observed in September 2017. In addition, industrial production increased in month-on-month terms in August for the second consecutive time, pointing to a recovery in the industrial sector, which barely expanded in Q2. On the downside, however, the unemployment rate picked up in Q3.

Economic growth is set to cool next year as fragile business confidence will continue to suppress fixed investment. Moreover, export growth is expected to slow, as weak demand abroad coincides with rising international trade tensions. On a brighter note, however, an expansionary fiscal stance should cushion the overall slowdown.

Market Trend

Swedish vehicles market has ended a growing phase in the 2017 when the market hit the all time record with  379.240 sales after a series of four consecutive growing years. The introduction of new fiscal rules aiming to push up the AVF vehicles and reduce the CO2 emission have pulled up the vehicles average price reducing the demand and the market approached a new and declining pathway which is still in place. A bonus/malus system was introduced in July 2018.

Indeed in the 2018 the market lost 6.7% landing at 353.647 sales and in the 2019 the trend is unchanged. Year to Date October figures were 277.405, down 9.0% and thanks to a positive year-on-year comparison the market is fast recovering since September after the decline scored in the first eight months of the year. October was really strong with sales grew up 28% helping the full year projection to be less negative and actually at 330.000 units, the worst in last five years, however.

Volvo, the local luxury brand owned by the Chinese Geely, has been market leader for 80 years until the 2012 when it was overtaken by Volkswagen for the first time, before to recover the leadership in the 2013 for the following 3 years. Since 2016 Volkswagen is back on top of the list, gaining a safety margin over Volvo and in the 2019 the gap will be over 3 points of share (Volkswagen at 18.2% and Volvo at 15.0%).

Behind the two leaders, the emerging brand is Kia, actually third with 6.3% of share, with new all time record, 2.3 points more than in the 2010. Fast growing is Seat as well, hitting in the 2019 the new all time share record at 2.2%. Tesla is fast growing thanks to the Model3 and is projected to end the year with 1.3% of market share.

Service Solutions

Since 2010, focus2move.com is a specialist in the automotive industry tracking monthly sales for all brands and models in the widest in the World range of countries, actually over 150. From this huge database we can extract data sorted under your own conditions and deliver historical data in excel. 

If you like to receive historical data or to subscribe at monthly update, contact us at kventura@focus2move.com and we will arrange a short video call. By showing you our database and segmentation, we can find together the best solutions for your team.

Rank 2019Rank 2018 Sales YTD 2019Sales October'+/- YTD 2019'+/- OctoberShare YTD 2019Share October
11Volvo49.5505.215-18,0%34,3%17,9%17,6%
22Volkswagen36.9074.939-22,4%66,2%13,3%16,7%
33Kia21.5392.4749,5%23,6%7,8%8,4%
44Toyota18.4552.349-1,4%31,5%6,7%7,9%
55BMW16.1921.802-3,9%5,8%5,8%6,1%
66Mercedes15.9791.609-0,8%8,9%5,8%5,4%
77Audi15.6801.6934,1%87,1%5,7%5,7%
88Skoda14.6151.2701,6%11,1%5,3%4,3%
99Renault8.880487-14,4%-45,0%3,2%1,6%
1114Seat7.57073028,4%92,6%2,7%2,5%
1012Ford7.134703-16,7%-25,1%2,6%2,4%
1211Peugeot6.721689-28,8%-6,4%2,4%2,3%
1310Nissan6.189778-35,7%70,6%2,2%2,6%
1513Fiat5.116435-33,3%64,8%1,8%1,5%
1420Mitsubishi5.05452247,8%26,1%1,8%1,8%
1727Tesla4.93183419,1%53,7%1,8%0,3%
1618Hyundai4.89864716,1%125,4%1,8%2,2%
1816Mazda4.539591-2,8%41,1%1,6%2,0%
1921Dacia3.570790,5%-48,0%1,3%0,3%
2017Subaru3.279390-21,4%5,7%1,2%1,3%
2122Mini3.10433812,1%-14,6%1,1%1,1%
2319Citroen2.856205-30,4%-15,3%1,0%0,7%
2215Opel2.497358-50,1%-14,4%0,9%1,2%
2423Honda2.295211-13,5%-9,4%0,8%0,7%
2524Suzuki1.973190-6,1%3,3%0,7%0,6%
2625Porsche1.7742815,1%440,4%0,6%0,9%
2726Lexus1.63618322,5%72,6%0,6%0,6%
2831Jaguar1.07342175,8%-40,8%0,4%0,1%
3030Land Rover86510266,7%92,5%0,3%0,3%
2928Jeep8581023,1%32,5%0,3%0,3%
3129Alfa Romeo50195-40,4%533,3%0,2%0,3%
3233Chevrolet1891-30,8%-66,7%0,1%0,0%
3340DS1258247,2%300,0%0,0%0,0%
3436Ferrari604
3535Amatorbygge554
3638Iveco425
3739Lamborghini342
3834Cadillac28-
3937Bentley25-
4042Morgan193
Alpine181
4146Smart9-
4244Aston Martin8-
4345Lotus3-
4449Man22
4448Dodge2-
4541Maserati1-
4547Rolls-Royce11
Rank 2019Rank 2018 Sales YTD 2019Sales October'+/- YTD 2019'+/- OctoberShare YTD 2019Share October
11Volkswagen Group76.6078.917-9,5%63,5%27,6%30,1%
22Geely Group49.5535.215-18,0%34,3%17,9%17,6%
34Hyundai-Kia26.4373.12110,6%36,3%9,5%10,5%
43Renault Nissan Alliance23.7111.867-12,1%-2,1%8,5%6,3%
55Toyota Group20.0912.5320,2%33,8%7,2%8,5%
66BMW19.2972.141-1,7%2,0%7,0%7,2%
78Mercedes Daimler15.9881.609-0,8%8,8%5,8%5,4%
87P.S.A.12.1991.260-34,3%-9,9%4,4%4,3%
910Ford Group7.134703-16,7%-25,1%2,6%2,4%
109F.C.A.6.580641-30,6%80,1%2,4%2,2%
Rank 2019Rank 2018 Sales YTD 2019Sales October'+/- YTD 2019'+/- October
13Volvo S/V6018.0321.87828,0%96,9%
22Volkswagen Golf12.0031.557-16,5%37,8%
31Volvo S/V9011.0811.074-47,8%-15,1%
45Volvo XC609.6781.246-18,2%101,6%
56Volkswagen Tiguan8.3391.084-10,5%193,8%
610Kia Niro6.85570953,2%63,0%
74Volkswagen Passat5.8161.148-53,7%75,5%
916Kia Cee’d5.15873225,2%87,2%
89Volvo XC405.0977942,5%43,3%
1012Skoda Octavia4.7283874,9%11,8%

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