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Ukraine September. Market has lost steam after the 2017 boom

Ukrainian Cars market Hyundai-i30-2019

Ukrainian Cars market in the third quarter kept the negative trend losing 10.2% with 20.798 sales, despite recent data reports a recovery in the economic activities and on private consumptions. Toyota is market leader ahead of Renault.

Economic Environment

Ukrainian economy recovery picked up steam in the second quarter. Detailed national accounts data showed stronger-than-previously-estimated growth largely due to an early start of the harvesting season this year. Overall, buoyant domestic demand led the expansion in Q2: Public spending growth soared by double-digits thanks to higher household utility subsidies, while a robust labor market and higher remittances propped up solid household consumption growth.

Solid domestic demand dynamics should ensure steady recovery for the Ukrainian economy this year and next. Tighter labor market conditions will prop up private consumption growth, while fixed investment should remain strong on the back of buoyant public and private investment activity. Considerable risks to the outlook stem from the uncertainty surrounding the IMF agreement as well as from next year’s elections.

Market Trend

Ukrainian vehicles market has been hit both by economic and political crisis falling down at near one tenth of the record level (over 600.000 sales) achieved over a decade ago. The negative peak was hit in the 2015, with only 58.237 units sold. Then,  according to data released by the Ukrautoprom, the market started a progressive recovery with 2016 at 68.743 units and 2017 at 91.549, up a robust +32.5%.

In the 2018 the market has lost steam after the previous year strong acceleration. Indeed, having ended the Q1 with 19.566 (-0.9%) and the first half at 40.598 (-4.86%), in the third quarter sales have been 20.798 (-10.2%) with Year to Date figures at 60.765 (-7.6%).

Market September Sales Sales Q3 Sales 2018 YTD Variation First Half Variation September Variation Q3 Variation 2018
Car+LCV 6.775 20.504 59.362 -3,8% -20,5% -7,8% -5,2%

Competitive Arena

Brand-wise, the market leader year to date is Toyota with 7.607 units (+10.5%) with 12.6% of market share.

In second place the 2017 leader, Renault, with 6.247 sales (-14.4%) followed by Volkswagen with 4.940 units (+2.8%), Skoda with 3.793 (-2.2%) and Nissan with 3.768 (+18.5%).

At model wise, the new leader is the Renault Duster with 2.384 (+26.8%) followed by the Toyota RAV4 with 2.063 sales (+12.4%) and the Kia Sportage with 1.851 (-33.9%).

Rank 2018 Rank 2017 Brand Sales 2018 Sales September Variation 2018 Variation September Share 2018 Share September
1 2 Toyota 7.607 918 10,53% -19,76% 12,62% 13,55%
2 1 Renault 6.247 697 -14,41% -22,12% 10,36% 10,29%
3 3 Volkswagen 4.940 501 2,77% -42,94% 8,19% 7,39%
4 4 Skoda 3.793 373 -2,17% -37,21% 6,29% 5,51%
5 8 Nissan 3.768 402 18,53% -8,84% 6,25% 5,93%
6 7 Hyundai 3.702 407 21,62% 2,01% 6,14% 6,01%
7 5 Kia 3.163 436 -20,96% -5,22% 5,25% 6,44%
8 6 Ford 2.404 224 -24,54% -47,29% 3,99% 3,31%
9 11 Mazda 2.390 326 23,90% 12,03% 3,96% 4,81%
10 12 Audi 2.311 102 44,89% -61,07% 3,83% 1,51%
11 13 Suzuki 2.034 257 13,19% 13,22% 3,37% 3,79%
12 9 Mercedes 1.923 231 -23,87% -39,05% 3,19% 3,41%
13 15 Peugeot 1.676 198 0,06% 7,03% 2,78% 2,92%
14 10 BMW 1.561 187 -28,23% -16,14% 2,59% 2,76%
15 16 Mitsubishi 1.540 234 8,60% 53,95% 2,55% 3,45%
16 14 Ravon 1.285 5 -16,56% -98,11% 2,13% 0,07%
17 20 Lexus 1.197 138 29,69% 20,00% 1,99% 2,04%
18 19 Citroen 1.101 183 4,26% 41,86% 1,83% 2,70%
19 28 Chery 866 111 133,42% 113,46% 1,44% 1,64%
20 29 Honda 660 87 94,12% 4,82% 1,09% 1,28%
21 18 Fiat 618 102 -46,49% -25,55% 1,03% 1,51%
22 27 Subaru 600 69 27,66% 23,21% 1,00% 1,02%
23 23 Land Rover 520 48 -13,48% -36,00% 0,86% 0,71%
24 25 Volvo 507 73 -10,11% 1,39% 0,84% 1,08%
25 24 Chevrolet 501 61 -15,66% -14,08% 0,83% 0,90%
26 17 ZAZ 474 19 -67,22% -85,38% 0,79% 0,28%
27 31 Porsche 406 44 29,30% -6,38% 0,67% 0,65%
28 26 Lada 395 57 -37,20% 3,64% 0,66% 0,84%
29 30 Infiniti 320 49 3,90% -7,55% 0,53% 0,72%
30 33 Great Wall 267 23 53,45% -11,54% 0,44% 0,34%
31 32 Geely 259 33 76,19% -15,38% 0,43% 0,49%
32 21 Seat 255 51 -69,82% -17,74% 0,42% 0,75%
33 22 Opel 169 19 -21,76% 35,71% 0,28% 0,28%
34 36 JAC 161 17 57,84% 21,43% 0,27% 0,25%
35 43 Tesla 131 18 309,38% 800,00% 0,22% 0,27%
36 35 Jaguar 128 25 -15,23% 4,17% 0,21% 0,37%
37 39 Mini 109 6 65,15% 0,18% 0,09%
38 34 Jeep 103 11 10,75% 0,17% 0,16%
39 45 Maserati 32 6 88,24% 0,05% 0,09%
40 46 Bentley 29 7 52,63% 133,33% 0,05% 0,10%
41 38 UAZ 23 2 -76,29% 0,04% 0,03%
42 41 Smart 22 8 -57,69% 100,00% 0,04% 0,12%
43 42 SsangYong 19 1 -51,28% 0,03% 0,01%
44 40 Acura 14 2 -64,10% 0,00% 0,02% 0,03%
45 44 Alfa Romeo 12 0 100,00% 0,02% 0,00%
Rank 2018 Rank 2017 MODEL Sales 2018 Sales September Variation 2018 Variation September
1 2 Renault Duster 2.384 307 26,88% 23,79%
2 4 Toyota RAV4 2.063 256 12,43% -21,71%
3 1 Kia Sportage 1.851 304 -33,94% 0,66%
4 8 Toyota Camry 1.840 187 53,85% -32,00%
5 3 Renault Logan 1.672 211 -21,91% -16,93%
6 6 Hyundai Tucson 1.624 169 23,31% 0,00%
7 5 Skoda Octavia 1.484 152 -22,91% -45,91%
8 11 Volkswagen Polo 1.472 261 56,76% 71,71%
9 26 Audi A3 1.402 13 604,52% -92,12%
10 12 Volkswagen Golf 1.401 30 189,19% -88,24%
11 10 Nissan Qashqai 1.397 143 20,22% 14,40%
12 13 Mazda CX-5 1.296 217 48,62% 39,10%
13 16 Nissan X-Trail 1.194 95 32,67% -32,14%
14 15 Renault Sandero 1.136 77 16,99% -1,28%
15 19 Suzuki Vitara 1.070 121 23,99% 1,68%
16 27 Toyota Prado 992 108 61,56% 83,05%
17 7 Toyota Corolla 868 132 -36,41% -13,73%
18 21 Nissan Juke 848 91 0,12% -37,67%
19 18 Mercedes GLE 840 120 -1,06% 4,35%
20 9 Ravon R2 791 2 -27,63% -98,89%
21 24 Suzuki SX4 781 110 16,39% 30,95%
22 20 Mitsubishi Outlander 776 141 -2,27% 101,43%
23 40 Chery Tiggo 755 0 106,85% -100,00%
24 14 Skoda Rapid 719 59 -15,71% -43,81%
24 29 Ford Focus 719 60 23,54% -20,00%
25 42 Hyundai Elantra 711 80 76,43% 0,00%
26 30 Volkswagen Passat 710 51 24,34% -50,00%
27 39 Peugeot 301 675 86 40,63% 86,96%
28 31 Ford Kuga 667 69 41,61% -23,33%
29 43 Skoda Kodiaq 659 65 81,54% 25,00%
30 17 Volkswagen Tiguan 648 68 -41,99% -30,61%
31 28 Hyundai Accent 610 55 5,17% 3,77%
32 33 BMW X5 584 74 5,80% 155,17%
33 23 Toyota Land Cruiser 574 68 -12,77% -41,88%
34 36 Toyota C-HR 570 82 14,23% 30,16%
35 46 Kia Rio 560 53 47,76% -32,05%
36 47 Peugeot 3008 479 40 62,93% -24,53%
37 35 Lexus RX 440 43 -10,39% -30,65%
38 34 Mazda6 431 54 -19,54% -6,90%
39 37 Ravon R4 423 2 1,44% -97,18%
40 38 Mazda3 410 35 -18,00% -53,95%
41 48 Hyundai Santa fe 397 60 24,45% 9,09%
42 25 Audi Q7 381 23 -47,45% -51,06%
43 96 Lexus NX 376 49 364,20% 444,44%
44 32 Skoda Fabia 364 11 -21,72% -91,06%
45 22 Ford Fiesta 360 24 -64,84% -64,71%
46 52 Mitsubishi Pajero Sport 333 54 32,67% 92,86%
47 65 Citroen C3 329 51 79,78% 96,15%
48 50 Citroen C-Elysée 319 66 0,31% 46,67%
49 41 Volkswagen Touareg 312 42 -18,11% -22,22%
50 63 Honda CR-V 311 40 44,65% -14,89%

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